Thursday, October 31, 2013

NBA Free Premium Plays 10/31: Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers

  
Golden State  at LA Clippers 

NBA - 503 Golden State Warriors @ 504 Los Angeles Clippers

Play #2 & #3

The Clippers got crushed on the fourth quarter of their opening game against the Lakers. Of course the main reason for that was their poor defense, something that Doc Rivers immediately mentioned after the game.

"I thought we broke down a lot defensively" Doc Rivers said. "All the things we've worked on that we do in the drill, then when the lights came on, we didn't do them and they took advantage of them."

So, the key question for this game is if the Clippers will be able to adjust defensively with just one practice in the middle between games. I believe that's highly unlikely and I really think that the Clippers will continue to struggle on defense on their following games. Doc Rivers is trying to implement the same defensive system that he used in Boston, a system that had Kevin Garnett as the key defensive player, who was amazing on team help defensive coverage. 

That role in LA has to be performed by Blake Griffin, who lacks Garnett's excellent defensive skills (so far). Worse than that, the Clippers have J.J. Redick and Jared Dudley on the backcourt, two players who aren't explosive enough on closing out on the opposing shooters. This is why the Lakers shot 14-29 3pts against them and that they will get an even tougher task tonight against the team that was #1 on 3pts% last season. Besides that, the Warriors showed already yesterday that they have a great offensive flow and two of the best shooters in the league in Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. The Warriors absolutely crushed the Lakers last night and so, they were able to rest players for today. This was vital for them, as their lack of depth is the team's main weakness, especially with Harrison Barnes injured.

On the other hand, the Clippers' offense looked good against the Lakers, with a good ball movement (27 assists) and 19 fast break points. Their only problem was the poor 13-23 FT, with Blake Griffin struggling with 3-10 FT! Also Chris Paul didn't impress a lot with 5-13 FG, something weird as he had an excellent offensive matchup in that game. The Clippers are still struggling on their second unit especially due to the lack of a reliable big man. In fact, from the bench, Ryan Hollins was the only frontcourt player that entered the court and only for four minutes! Mark Jackson will possibly save Andre Iguodala to defend Chris Paul on the fourth quarter, something that could make Paul struggle a bit, especially as the Clippers don't have a perimeter defensive stopped like Eric Bledsoe last season to hide Chris Paul from having to defend Curry or Klay.
I expect a close and offensive minded contest in here, with both teams showing more efficiency on offense than on defense. I believe the Warriors are being clearly underrated in here as well and so, I'll be taking both Golden State and the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 204.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Golden State Warriors (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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