Plays #1 & 2
First of all, the good news. It seems like Al Jefferson will be back for tonight's game:
Al Jefferson (ankle) practiced on Sunday and coach Steve Clifford is "hopeful" that he'll be in uniform vs. the Hawks on Monday.
"It’s all up to coach [Clifford]" Al Jefferson said, when asked when he'd return to action. "I think I proved I can go, but it’s not about one game and relapsing."
Al Jefferson (ankle) will start Monday's game after making it through shootaround with no setbacks.
"I don’t know how many minutes he'll play, but he feels good" said Bobcats coach Steve Clifford.
Al Jefferson's return comes right in time for... the Hawks! Of course Al Jefferson won't be at 100% tonight and while he might make a nice effort on offense, I'm sure that his poor defense will be even worse tonight on his comeback game due to lack of rhythm and lack of playing time on the team defensive scheme. So, Al Horford will have a huge field day today on offense! Charlotte has been great in protecting the rim this season with just 59.6% FG allowed! However, tonight's game will be tough matchup for them and in fact, when they faced the Knicks with two "big men" that shoot from the outside like Carmelo Anthony and Andrea Bargnani, the Bobcats' defense struggle and so, today I expect Al Horford and Paul Millsap to do the same in here with their nice mid range shooting skills.
On the other side, Charlotte with Al Jefferson on the rotation will allow the perimeter players to have more space. What they like to do is attack the rim with their guards and if they don't score, they can at least get free throw attempts. Atlanta's defense is being built like San Antonio's (not a surprise as their head coach was Popovich's main assistant) and that means that the Hawks are #4 in the league on opponent FT rate with just 17.5%! So, the key in here will be how Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson and Ramon Sessions will be efficient on offense today. Atlanta isn't a strong unit on this defensive area, but their defense is designed to force their opponents to shoot from mid-range, while protecting the basket, so I believe that Atlanta will do an acceptable defensive game in here.
Atlanta's edge on offense will be huge, especially with the Horford x Jefferson mismatch, while I expect them to be decent on defense. Therefore, I'll be taking the Hawks tonight. As I believe Atlanta will have an offensive explosion and Charlotte will also score their points against a decent but not great Hawks' defense, I'll be also taking the Over in here.
"It’s all up to coach [Clifford]" Al Jefferson said, when asked when he'd return to action. "I think I proved I can go, but it’s not about one game and relapsing."
Al Jefferson (ankle) will start Monday's game after making it through shootaround with no setbacks.
"I don’t know how many minutes he'll play, but he feels good" said Bobcats coach Steve Clifford.
Al Jefferson's return comes right in time for... the Hawks! Of course Al Jefferson won't be at 100% tonight and while he might make a nice effort on offense, I'm sure that his poor defense will be even worse tonight on his comeback game due to lack of rhythm and lack of playing time on the team defensive scheme. So, Al Horford will have a huge field day today on offense! Charlotte has been great in protecting the rim this season with just 59.6% FG allowed! However, tonight's game will be tough matchup for them and in fact, when they faced the Knicks with two "big men" that shoot from the outside like Carmelo Anthony and Andrea Bargnani, the Bobcats' defense struggle and so, today I expect Al Horford and Paul Millsap to do the same in here with their nice mid range shooting skills.
On the other side, Charlotte with Al Jefferson on the rotation will allow the perimeter players to have more space. What they like to do is attack the rim with their guards and if they don't score, they can at least get free throw attempts. Atlanta's defense is being built like San Antonio's (not a surprise as their head coach was Popovich's main assistant) and that means that the Hawks are #4 in the league on opponent FT rate with just 17.5%! So, the key in here will be how Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson and Ramon Sessions will be efficient on offense today. Atlanta isn't a strong unit on this defensive area, but their defense is designed to force their opponents to shoot from mid-range, while protecting the basket, so I believe that Atlanta will do an acceptable defensive game in here.
Atlanta's edge on offense will be huge, especially with the Horford x Jefferson mismatch, while I expect them to be decent on defense. Therefore, I'll be taking the Hawks tonight. As I believe Atlanta will have an offensive explosion and Charlotte will also score their points against a decent but not great Hawks' defense, I'll be also taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Atlanta Hawks (-2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NBA - 703 Memphis Grizzlies @ 704 Indiana Pacers
Indiana is coming from another great win, this time at Brooklyn last Saturday, even though they were playing their fourth game in five nights, while being also on a back to back spot against the fired up Nets. Indiana had problems in having good interior position down low and they ended the game with just 8-15 FG at the rim. Brooklyn did a good job in limiting Indiana's frontcourt, however the Pacers won the game due to an excellent long range shooting game with 8-18 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-14 3pts! The Pacers also had a season low 13 turnovers, even though that's not a surprise as Brooklyn doesn't put a lot of pressure on the opposing ball handler. Brooklyn also played well, sure they struggled to score down low. They also compensated that with some decent long range shooting, but Indiana won a tight game due to a rebounding edge, less turnovers and two more free throws that made all the difference in the end.
Memphis is coming from a nice home win against Golden State last Saturday. All their five starters scored in double digits and the team's offense looked more similar with last year's system than with their new system. They pounded the Warriors down low with 54 points in the paint and a nice 9-16 FG on post up plays against a good post up defense like Golden State. I believe the Warriors' poor spot made them struggle on this area. Memphis won the boards battle, they limited turnovers and packed the paint completely to the Warriors who ended with just 18 points scored in the paint. This was a statement game for the Grizzlies to tell the league that "they're back"!
Both teams have similar styles, as they are both post-heavy centric. Memphis is coming from a great win over Golden State that gave them a lot of confidence, especially on offense where they struggled early on the season. Of course Memphis will face the league's best defense in Indiana, who is already #1 on post up defense, but the Pacers will also struggle to dominate down low against another excellent post up defense like the Grizzlies. So, the key of the game will be on the perimeter play where Indiana has been outplaying Memphis this season. However, the Pacers are turnover prone and this will be very dangerous for them in here, as Memphis has a defense that likes to force a ton of turnovers to their opponents. Indiana's outside shooting has been very inconsistent this season and even though they are coming from a nice game against Brooklyn's slow footed backcourt, things will be much tougher for them against Memphis's excellent perimeter defense. Tayshaun Prince will be also ready to guard Paul George to prevent him to have another massive game tonight.
Play #3
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Memphis is coming from a nice home win against Golden State last Saturday. All their five starters scored in double digits and the team's offense looked more similar with last year's system than with their new system. They pounded the Warriors down low with 54 points in the paint and a nice 9-16 FG on post up plays against a good post up defense like Golden State. I believe the Warriors' poor spot made them struggle on this area. Memphis won the boards battle, they limited turnovers and packed the paint completely to the Warriors who ended with just 18 points scored in the paint. This was a statement game for the Grizzlies to tell the league that "they're back"!
Both teams have similar styles, as they are both post-heavy centric. Memphis is coming from a great win over Golden State that gave them a lot of confidence, especially on offense where they struggled early on the season. Of course Memphis will face the league's best defense in Indiana, who is already #1 on post up defense, but the Pacers will also struggle to dominate down low against another excellent post up defense like the Grizzlies. So, the key of the game will be on the perimeter play where Indiana has been outplaying Memphis this season. However, the Pacers are turnover prone and this will be very dangerous for them in here, as Memphis has a defense that likes to force a ton of turnovers to their opponents. Indiana's outside shooting has been very inconsistent this season and even though they are coming from a nice game against Brooklyn's slow footed backcourt, things will be much tougher for them against Memphis's excellent perimeter defense. Tayshaun Prince will be also ready to guard Paul George to prevent him to have another massive game tonight.
This is a very tricky spot for Indiana, who has a very tough game today after a win at Brooklyn, where they were playing their fourth game in five nights. Their following game will only be next Friday and so, I believe their effort level won't be very high today on this poor spot for them. On a tough and very physical matchup like this one, Memphis's superior effort will give them a nice edge in here. Therefore, I expect the Grizzlies to at least making this game super close and so, I'll be taking them in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 703 Memphis Grizzlies (+6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NBA - 709 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 710 Chicago Bulls
"I felt it was the right time to experiment" Mike Brown said. "It makes us that much more dynamic [offensively]. They can all create, shoot and pass. It was a neat thing to watch those guys feed off each other. The trust and belief was there." The combo may not live up to Brown's usual defensive standards, but it helps that Waiters and Jack are both barrel-chested, physical guards.
The Cavaliers' offense had a nice game against Philadelphia, but nothing too special given the Sixers' poor defense. The major news on this game was indeed the 3-guard lineup that has indeed potential to be effective on offense, while it should be a recipe for disaster on defense. Cleveland needs to grab offensive rebounds to be competitive and the Bulls' defensive rebounding has been subpar so far, but on the other areas Chicago's good defense will be indeed a tough matchup for Cleveland, as the Bulls have a good pick and roll defense. I believe Chicago will pick up an easy win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here. Given Cleveland's new lineup and the nice offensive edges that the Bulls will have on this matchup, I also consider the totals line to be set too low and so, I'll be taking the Over on this game as well.
Plays #4 & 5
Chicago is coming from a nice home win over the lowly Jazz last Saturday. They committed 20 turnovers during the game, with 10 of them happening on the second quarter! Without that, they would have won this game by 40 or 50 points! The Bulls scored a lot of points on the paint as usual (56 out of a total of 97 points), while shooting the ball 47 times in the restricted area right near the rim! Now against Cleveland, I believe the Bulls will have a good matchup as well tonight. Cleveland's interior defense is struggling their opponents to score down low mostly due to the lack of protection given by the perimeter. This is why their opponents are shooting 66.7% FG at the rim against the Cavaliers this season! If we add to this Chicago's good ball movement, I believe the Bulls will score a ton of easy points tonight. Derrick Rose shouldn't have a lot of problems against Kyrie Irving's or Jarrett Jack's poor defense, so Cleveland will need to take an extra look on this matchup, something that will open even more space down low for the Bulls' frontcourt! Chicago's main issue on offense has been the turnovers and this is the only area where Cleveland might get the edge as their ball pressure has been decent this season.
Cleveland is coming from an overtime win at home against Philadelphia last Saturday, where their coach Mike Brown used a three-guard lineup featuring Kyrie Irving, Dion Waiters and Jarrett Jack and was happy with the results of that after the game:
The Cavaliers' offense had a nice game against Philadelphia, but nothing too special given the Sixers' poor defense. The major news on this game was indeed the 3-guard lineup that has indeed potential to be effective on offense, while it should be a recipe for disaster on defense. Cleveland needs to grab offensive rebounds to be competitive and the Bulls' defensive rebounding has been subpar so far, but on the other areas Chicago's good defense will be indeed a tough matchup for Cleveland, as the Bulls have a good pick and roll defense. I believe Chicago will pick up an easy win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here. Given Cleveland's new lineup and the nice offensive edges that the Bulls will have on this matchup, I also consider the totals line to be set too low and so, I'll be taking the Over on this game as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Over 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 710 Chicago Bulls (-7.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 711 Toronto Raptors @ 712 Houston Rockets
The only area where Houston will have a decent edge will be on pick and rolls, as Toronto's defense has been subpar on this area so far on this season, however it's important to note that James Harden is banged up and clearly far from being physically at 100% right now! Toronto's offense on this context of a run and gun game should have individual edges with DeMar DeRozan and Rudy Gay, as Houston's perimeter defense is indeed quite weak. Therefore, I expect Toronto to be surprisingly competitive tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Play #6
Toronto had pretty much a practice last Saturday at home against Utah. No starter played more than 28 minutes and they comfortably managed their huge lead throughout the whole game. The Raptors continue having decent defensive numbers and this time their offense was also sharp with a season high 23 assists! It was the first time they had more than 20 assists on a game this season! They also shot a decent 10-25 3pts, but then against they were facing Utah who has been a disaster lately.
The Raptors will now play at Houston on a much tougher game for them. However, I actually expect the Rockets to struggle tonight! First of all, Toronto is a rebounding machine in both ends of the floor, as they are #4 in the league on defensive rebounding and #1 on offense rebounding! Of course Houston is also a good rebounding team, but they won't have the edge that they normally have against their opponents this season. Another important aspect is that Toronto's defense has been excellent on transitions by being #3 in the league on fast break points allowed with just 10.3 points per game and so, they will heavily limit one of Houston's main abilities on offense that is running the floor and scoring in transition!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711 Toronto Raptors (+7.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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