Play #1
I expect this divisional game to be a low scoring affair. Tennessee lost their QB Jake Locker for the season and they will now have to start Ryan Fitzpatrick, who didn't look good at all when he had to replace Locker earlier on the season. Therefore, I don't expect the Titans' offense to take a lot of risks today and play it safe by giving an extra load of carries to their RB Chris Johnson, who should have an average game, as he was only able to have a good performance once in the whole season so far on a game against St Louis. Even though the Titans will struggle to advance in the field today, they should be able to burn the clock a lot with a run-oriented offense to prevent Andrew Luck from being in the field for a lot of time tonight.
On the other hand, I expect Indianapolis's offense to also struggle in here. First of all, Tennessee has an underrated defense and they are #12 in the league on pass defense DVOA, not bad! Then, Andrew Luck has been dealing with some problems in finding open teammates since his main target Reggie Wayne suffered a season-ending injury. Therefore, I don't expect Luck to throw a lot of long passes tonight against an underrated Titans defense. On the other hand, the Colts' offense is close to be a 50/50 one regarding throwing or rushing the football. However, they lost Ahmad Bradshaw and Vick Ballard early on the season and even though they traded for Trent Richardson, he has been disappointing and I don't expect him to have a big game tonight as well.
I believe both teams won't risk a lot tonight, as there is a lot in stake on this divisional contest. I expect a physical game, where both offenses will once again show that they have been in much better shape previously. Both teams have decent defenses and so, I believe this will be a low scoring affair. I'm taking the Under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 309/310 Under 43 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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