NBA - 507 Miami Heat @ 508 Orlando Magic
Play #1
Miami is coming from an easy home win against Atlanta last night, where they could rest their starters, as even LeBron James played just 30 minutes. Looking at what Orlando does on offense, we can expect a similar matchup in here to the one that Miami faced against Atlanta yesterday, as the Magic's offense is too dependent from pick and rolls with a volume of 21.1%, 19.8% and 22.0% of this kind of play over their last three games. Orlando has uses a lot of spot up plays, some post up plays with Nikola Vucevic and some transitions as well. However, I expect Orlando's pick and roll game to heavily struggle with Miami's ball pressuring defense like Atlanta struggled yesterday. Orlando has no talent to compensate this and so, I immediately think that Orlando will heavily struggle on offense tonight.
On the other hand, Orlando has been defending very well near the basket and also on 3pts defense. Their black hole on defense is on the 16-23 feet area, but that's where they allow their opponents to shoot as it's the less effective area to shoot on the court. Orlando's defense are decent on transitions, very good on spot up defense and they only really struggle on pick and roll defense. With Miami having so many injuries right now (Dwyane Wade, Udonis Haslem, Ray Allen all banged up), I believe that they will try to save some energy tonight and set a relatively slow pace tonight. Therefore, I expect this game to be a relatively low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 199 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NBA - 513 Portland Trailblazers @ 514 Milwaukee Bucks
Plays #2 &3
Milwaukee will be once again shorthanded for tonight, while Portland will be playing their final game of a road trip on the East. Looking at what Portland's offense, it's easy to see what they will be doing tonight. While studying the match ups of the Blazers' offense, you need to take a look at pick and roll ball handler defense, post up defense to stop LaMarcus Aldridge and of course outside shooting defense, as Portland is an elite team on perimeter shooting. Looking now at Milwaukee's defense, they are just #27 on pick and roll ball handler defense and #25 on post up defense, while they will have the rookie Nate Wolters defending Damian Lillard and an out of rhythm Ersan Ilyasova returning from injury defending LaMarcus Aldridge. This isn't going to end up well for the Bucks' defense.
On the other side, Portland's defense struggles on pick and rolls and on post up defense, where they are last in the league, while they are also the team in the league that allows more points in the paint per game. However, Milwaukee would need to have an elite Center + Point Guard to crush Portland's defense and they would have Zaza Pachulia and Nate Wolters, so they won't be able to expose Portland's defensive weaknesses tonight. In fact, the Bucks' offense are just #29 on pick and roll ball handler plays with 0.58 PPP and #28 on pick and roll roll man plays with 0.78 PPP. They have some shooting outside skills with Gary Neal, O.J. Mayo and Caron Butler and nothing else.
Therefore, I believe Portland won't have a lot of problems in taking out the shorthanded Bucks tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here. Looking at the fact that Milwaukee's offense won't be able to expose Portland's defensive struggles and the Blazers themselves aren't on a great spot as they are playing the last game of a road trip, I believe this game will be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513/514 Under 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 Portland Trailblazers (-5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Betonline
NBA - 501 Brooklyn Nets @ 502 Charlotte Bobcats
Play #4
Charlotte won't have Al Jefferson for tonight once again, so their offense will be very guard-oriented once again, with a lot of jumpers. The team needs to score on fast breaks and the 12 fast break points and 6-15 FG on transition plays at Chicago last night weren't good enough for them, especially when they shot 3-17 FG on pick and rolls! However, they were facing a Bulls team that is #3 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense. This was the second game in a row where Charlotte faced an elite pick and roll defense, as they had faced Miami (#1 in the league on this area) on their previous game, so no wonder that they scored just 81 points on two straight games.
Things should be easier for Charlotte tonight against Brooklyn. The Nets are coming from a home game against Portland, where they allowed 11-17 FG and 1.48 PPP on pick and roll ball handler plays to the Blazers. So, it's not a big surprise that Brooklyn is dead last in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense, having allowed 1.20, 1.24, 1.06 and 1.48 PPP on this kind of play over their last four games! If we add to this a subpar transition defense, Charlotte has indeed a good spot to have an offensive bounce back tonight. Charlotte's defense is so anxious about protecting the basket that they are allowing some space on the outside to their opponents and they are taking advantage of that with 40% FG allowed from 16-23 feet. The Bobcats' 3pts defense hasn't been good this season neither. Therefore, the Nets' offense will have some edge on mid range shooting given Charlotte's style on defense. Deron Williams, Joe Johnson and Paul Pierce should be too strong for Charlotte's perimeter to handle. I believe both teams will have decent offensive performances tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Over 186 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 503 Washington Wizards @ 504 Cleveland Cavaliers
Play #5
Washington is coming from a nice home win over Minnesota last night. The Wolves were crushing the Wizards with 30 points scored in less than 10 minutes played, but then they got super lazy on defense and were ridiculously poor on transition defense for a team that was #1 in the league on this area just a few days ago! Washington scored 33 fast break points, while shooting 16-21 FG in transition! That's 76% FG! John Wall has been great in sharing the ball and he is lethal on transitions due to his excellent court vision. If the Wizards' transition game worked perfectly, their outside shooting wasn't worse with a great night as well. The area where Washington's offense struggled was on pick and roll ball handler plays, where John Wall showed that he is still a quite raw shooter, ending the game with 5-17 FG!
Today's game will be a revenge game for Washington, who lost on overtime at home against Cleveland last Saturday. This will be a back to back game for the Wizards, with four of their starters having played between 35 and 43 minutes yesterday, while Cleveland hasn't played since Saturday! In last Saturday's game, both teams were on bad streaks at the moment. Washington was coming from a road trip where they got crushed at San Antonio on their last game, while Cleveland lost at home against Charlotte, after getting pounded at Minnesota by 29 points! On a game between two struggling teams, there was a lot of physicality and little clairvoyance. I think that tonight's game will give us a better offensive game. After all, both teams are coming from wins this time around.
Cleveland innovated on their last game by putting Kyrie Irving playing more off the ball, something that surprised Washington's defense. However, the most interesting aspect would happen when Matthew Dellavedova entered the court, putting the Cavaliers playing with a very small ball, with a lineup formed by Irving, Jack, Dellavedova, Clark and Varejao! Still, Cleveland had 18.3% of volume on isolation plays and committed 20 turnovers. They shot just 5-13 FG at the rim and 5-19 FG from 4-9 feet, so all their offensive production came from the outside. On the other hand, Washington pounded Cleveland down low with 20-23 FG at the rim, while shooting 9-32 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-25 3pts. Even though Washington is on a back to back spot, I like them in here. They will have a revenge mindset and they seem indeed the better team from the two right now. I'm taking the Wizards tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Washington Wizards (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Play #6
The Knicks are coming a loss last night in Detroit, where they changed the lineup to match Detroit's powerful frontcourt by starting both Kenyon Martin and Andrea Bargnani, sending Carmelo Anthony into the SF position. With these changes, there was a clear regression on offense by the NY team, as the floor spacing was worst and not even the fact that they were facing Detroit's poor perimeter defense helped them. Right now the Knicks can't be effective in a lot of plays and one of the few where they are good couldn't be used last night, as that's the pick and pop between Raymond Felton and Andrea Bargnani, a play that couldn't be used as Felton is currently injured. Anyway, Bargnani actually had a nice offensive game and the Knicks managed to make some damage near the basket, however their outside shooting was terrible. On defense, it's just too easy to score against the Knicks with dribble penetrations. After Jeff Teague having two monster games in a row against them, it was time for Rodney Stuckey to crush them with 8-14 FG, 5-5 FT, 21 points and 5 assists in 31 minutes! Bargnani isn't a terrible 1*1 defender, but his help defense and defensive awareness are terrible. Combined with a veteran Kenyon Martin and Amare Stoudemire whose defense is probably the worst in the league, the Knicks' interior defense is a mess without Tyson Chandler. So, Detroit shot 20-27 (74%) FG at the rim last night.
The Knicks will now host the Pacers possibly without Raymond Felton due to injury and also without Kenyon Martin, who normally doesn't play back to back games. Assuming that the Knicks will keep the same lineup as yesterday, their offense won't stand a chance with Indiana's defense. The Knicks with no offensive flow can't get clean shots on the outside, while Carmelo Anthony will be well guarded by Paul George. It will be up to Andrea Bargnani to get some edge on his outside shooting over Roy Hibbert, but the Italian really misses Felton to be at 100% on offense. On the other side, Indiana will have a clear rebounding edge tonight, while the Knicks' interior defense without Tyson Chandler won't be able to stop Indiana's frontcourt, as seen yesterday where Greg Monroe shot 6-8 FG and Andre Drummond 6-7 FG for a combined of 12-15 FG! More than that, Indiana will also have an edge on the perimeter, as after getting crushed at Chicago and on nice spot where they had time to rest and prepare for this game, both Paul George and Lance Stepehenson will be super aggressive and they will expose the Knicks' struggles on defending dribble penetrations into the basket. Therefore, everything points into an easy win for the Pacers tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Indiana Pacers (-6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 509 Toronto Raptors @ 510 Philadelphia 76ers
Play #7
Philadelphia lost at Dallas last Monday and it's impressive how the Sixers had 22% of volume on transitions with 17-23 FG! That's 31 fast break points for just a total of 94 points! They also shot 23-37 FG at the rim, so they shot a combined of 15-62 (24%) FG on the other areas! Things will be tough for Philadelphia tonight, as Toronto is #8 in the league on transition defense and #4 in fast break points allowed per game with 11.2 ppg. Therefore, the Sixers won't be able to use one of their main strengths on offense tonight and that's a huge blow for them.
The Sixers' defense is soft near the basket and guards that attack them off the dribble can do whatever they want with Philadelphia's defense. That happened with Jeff Teague and Jrue Holiday, so I expect the same to happen with the aggressive Toronto's guards. The fact that this game will be played under a super fast pace will only help Toronto, a team that has a super athletic team. Michael Carter-Williams is returning tonight, but I think he will be a bit off rhythm after an injury lay-off. So, I believe Toronto should get a comfortable win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 Toronto Raptors (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 519 Boston Celtics @ 520 San Antonio Spurs
Play #8
Boston was crushed by Houston last night, just like they had been at Minnesota as well. They were completely unable to prevent their opponents from scoring near the basket, as Minnesota scored 52 points in the paint, while Houston scored 60 yesterday! With a frontcourt formed by Brandon Bass, Vitor Faverani, Kelly Olynyk and Jared Sullinger, it's easy to understand why their interior defense is so poor. Boston's backcourt defense is much better than their frontcourt defense and they had some interesting performances, but that was against Toronto, Milwaukee, Orlando and Charlotte. Things are completely different against Minnesota, Houston and... San Antonio!
The Spurs are coming to this game after four days off, while the Celtics are on a back to back spot. Therefore, I believe that San Antonio will have a huge offensive game in here, especially with Tim Duncan being fired up after a poor start of the season that put him shooting below 40% FG! More than that, San Antonio's ball movement is so good that will get through Boston's good backcourt defense and get into the paint where they'll crush the Celtics' terrible interior defense. On the other side, Boston's offense depends a lot from their guards especially on pick and rolls with Avery Bradley and Jordan Crawford penetrating into the basket, while they also shoot a lot from mid range. San Antonio's defense is an elite unit, but their perimeter defense has been subpar so far this season and this should allow Boston to have a decent offensive game tonight. Therefore, I believe this game will be a high scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 519/520 Over 193 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 523 Houston Rockets @ 524 Dallas Mavericks
Play #9
This game promises to be a super high scoring one. Houston will have in Dwight Howard a massive mismatch over any defender from Dallas, so either Howard will have a monster game tonight or Dallas will be forced to give an extra look on him and that will leave space to Houston's great perimeter shooters. Anyway, Houston with Jeremy Lin, Patrick Beverley and James Harden will have plenty of success on dribble penetrations in here against Dallas's slow footed guards. Every time the Mavericks find an aggressive team on transitions, they get pounded: they allowed 31 fast break points to Philadelphia, 28 to Washington, 27 to Oklahoma City and 19 to Houston on the first game of the season between these two teams.
On the other hand, Dallas will also have some edges on their own offense. The Mavericks continue not to shoot close to the basket, but they will take advantage of Houston's turnover problem by running quick transitions, an area where they are #2 in the league with 1.26 PPP. In the same way that Houston's guards will have an edge on offense, the same can be said about Dallas's guards, as Houston is #12 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense and #25 on pick and roll roll man defense. The first game between these two teams ended with a Rockets win by 113-105, with 218 points scored. On that game, Houston committed 24 turnovers and shot just 34-51 (66%) FT. On the other hand, Dallas shot 38% FG, with Dirk Nowitzki having a poor 6-15 FG night. If that game still ended with 218 points under these conditions, I can only expect this game to go over 214 points scored tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 523/524 Over 214 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 525 Memphis Grizzlies @ 526 Golden State Warriors
Plays #10 & 11
Stephen Curry is out of this game due to a concussion and without him, the Warriors have been a mess, as according to 82games.com, the Warriors are +16.4 with Curry on court and -5.9 without him on court! With Curry's natural backup, Toney Douglas also out, Andre Iguodala will really need to play at the PG position tonight. This happened on a game against San Antonio earlier on this season and the result of that was Golden State scoring 74 points and committing 21 turnovers. And that was with Toney Douglas playing and quite well with a 8-14 FG performance on 28 minutes! Jermaine O'Neal is also doubtful for tonight, so if the Warriors are normally thin on back ups, they will have zero solutions coming off the bench tonight.
Memphis is coming from a nice win at LA against the Clippers and they seem to be regaining some confidence as of late. They won't have Tony Allen for tonight due to a suspension, but without Stephen Curry, all the Grizzlies' perimeter defense will need to do is guarding Klay Thompson closely. Then, Zach Randolph is in such good form that together with Marc Gasol, they should be too much to handle for Andrew Bogut and David Lee in both ends of the floor. I expect the line is super overrating the Warriors in here without Stephen Curry, so I believe Memphis will at least fight for the win until the end, on a game that promises to be a low scoring one. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Grizzlies and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 525/526 Under 190 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 525 Memphis Grizzlies (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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