Play #1
This game will be played on very cold temperatures between two teams who are indeed run oriented. While Washington has passed the ball 56% of the times and rushed 44%, San Francisco has rushed the football for 55% and passed only 45% of the time. The Redskins' defense has been a disaster all season long, but their run defense has been average over their last four games with 3.50%, 2.90%, -6.90% and -4.30% run defense DVOA. With LG Mike Iupati out of tonight's game, I expect the 49ers' running game to be less sharp than usual and with Colin Kaepernick lacking confidence after two poor games against Carolina and New Orleans, I believe that San Francisco's offense will indeed struggle tonight. I also believe Jim Harbaugh will want his team to be physical against Washington by pounding the ball and this will burn a lot of time from the clock.
On the other side, Washington's running game has been improving with the help with RGIII and that has been the key factor for their offense. In fact, over their last six games, they managed to get 24.90%, 20.50%, -2.70%, +19.00%, 12.60% and 24.90% on their running game DVOA! However, the 49ers' after a bye week are coming from two good defensive games against Carolina and New Orleans, where they lost but their defense did a good job. Therefore, I expect them to have another good performance tonight against the Redskins offense. I believe this game will be an old low-scoring affair between two teams who like to run the football a lot and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 233/234 Under 46 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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