Play #1
***EARLY GAME - 1PM EST START***
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 193,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NBA - 703 Memphis Grizzlies @ 704 Sacramento Kings
We are in front of two teams who are yet to convince anybody this season and who currently hold horrible ATS records. On this specific matchup, I believe that Memphis will have the edge and that they will eventually win this game with a comfortable margin. It was weird to see the Grizzlies with so much problems in beating the lowly Lakers on the road. They looked great on the offensive end with a season-high 27 assists and 10 turnovers, they pounded down low with Zach Randolph, but once again they couldn't score one single outside shooting bucket to save their lives: 1-11 3pts! As expected, Memphis used their post up game to dominate the Lakers' undersized frontcourt with 12-22 FG and 1.15 PPP. The good news for Memphis is that they will face a Sacramento team that is also struggling on defending down low. They are just #25 in the league on post up defense, while allowing 70% FG near the basket! Of course that Memphis having a nice outside shooting game would help, but the truth is that they will indeed have a big edge on their interior offense today.
The Grizzlies' defense has been disappointing, especially after being such an elite defense last season. Their ultra aggressive defense has been explored by their opponents to punish them from the outside, but Sacramento is heavily struggling on their perimeter shooting. DeMarcus Cousins is their only consistent offensive player, but he will have a tough matchup today against Marc Gasol, while Sacramento's perimeter offense isn't fluid enough to take advantage of the Grizzlies' struggles on this area. Therefore, I expect a comfortable win for Memphis today and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Memphis Grizzlies (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 705 Detroit Pistons @ 706 Los Angeles Lakers
This matchup will favor a lot a shootout given the approach that both teams will have to this contest. Detroit will come with their powerful frontcourt unit formed by Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe and Josh Smith, so no way the Lakers will want to play against Detroit on halfcourt. As expected, Detroit has been struggling on their perimeter defense when these three players are on court together as they lack speed to cover defensive ground. On their last three games, already on this road trip, Detroit allowed 29-64 (45%) 3pts and these are great news for the Lakers whose offense is built around shooting treys, while playing small ball with a guard oriented offense.
Detroit's edge will be inevitable down low. However, the Pistons are also scoring a lot of points via transition while using the speed of their guards with 18.8 fast break points per game (#2 in the league!). They will have a great opportunity to pile up their numbers today as the Lakers' transition defense has been in poor form by being just #28 in the league while allowing 18.0 fast break points per game. This set up is perfect for a high scoring game with one team having the edge on the outside, while the other will crush the opponent down low and score in transition. The Lakers will set a very fast paced game in here as well, so I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Over 203,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment