NBA - 501 Milwaukee Bucks @ 502 Miami Heat
Plays #1 & 2
Miami is coming from their second ridiculous loss of the season. The first one was understandable as they were on a back to back spot after a physical game against Chicago and Philadelphia was a blind opponent, as they were playing their first game of the season, however things were different with their home loss against Boston. They lost that game on a ridiculous way down the stretch and so, they will come fired up to bounce back from that tonight.
The good news if that Milwaukee's offense is a perfect matchup for Miami to have a much needed defensive bounce back game. One of Miami's main problems has been their poor rebounding, especially on defense, where they allowed 12.5 offensive rebounds per game on their last four games! However, Milwaukee without Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova has been a subpar team on offensive rebounding with just a 22.4% rate, only good enough to be #26 in the league on that stat!
On the other side, Milwaukee is coming from a home loss against Dallas, a team that doesn't have a great interior presence, but that wasn't enough against a Milwaukee frontcourt with no offensive skills. Even though the Bucks had a decent outside shooting game with 11-23 (47.8%) 3pts, that wasn't enough for them, as they shot just 13-26 FG at the rim and 3-17 FG from 4-9 feet! This helped Dallas that was on a poor spot and struggled physically during the second half, but still held the lead to get the win at the end, even though they shot just 5-22 FG during the third quarter.
With no inside game on offense, the Bucks will shoot almost everything from the outside and so, Miami's ball pressure on defense will put the Bucks in huge trouble today. Milwaukee will struggle in avoiding turnovers tonight and with that, they will see their poor transition defense (#28 in the league) getting exposed a lot tonight. With Larry Sanders out of the game, Milwaukee loses their best rim protector and so, Miami's offense will have a field day that will not only have the edge on the perimeter like also a tons of easy points down low via their good ball movement and Milwaukee's weak rim protection. I believe Miami will pick up an easy blowout win today, while shutting down the Bucks' offense, so I'll be taking both Miami and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 196,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 Miami Heat (-13,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 503 Washington Wizards @ 504 Dallas Mavericks
Play #3
NOTE: Pinnacle has currently this game at +6 @ -113 / 1.89. If you can, wait a bit so you can get the +6 line on your sportsbooks as well (Pinnacle, Bovada and SportsInteraction already have it at +6). The public is pounding Dallas, so eventually during the day the line will fall into +6 on pretty much every sportsbook in the web!
Washington should have won their last game at Oklahoma City last Sunday, as they were the better team, however some silly errors down the stretch sent the game into overtime and then, into a close loss for the Wizards. The key moment of the game was the conflict between Nene Hilario and Russell Westbrook that led to the ejection of both players. However, while Westbrook was struggling with 4-16 FG and 5 turnovers, Nene Hilario was dominating the Thunder's frontcourt with 5-6 FG, 14 points, 7 rebounds and 6 assists! Nene's ejection forced Washington to play the rest of the fourth quarter and the overtime with a frontcourt formed by Al Harrington and Kevin Seraphin, something that made the Wizards struggle on rebounding! Offensively, Washington was playing really well with Nene Hilario close to being at the Point Forward role, while Bradley Beal just can't seem to be able to miss a long-range shot these days! Even though John Wall has been struggling on his shooting (3-13 FG), he has been able to dish a good number of assists to compensate that. If it wasn't for their poor 13-26 FT, Washington would have won this game at Oklahoma City.
Dallas is coming from a win last Saturday at Milwaukee, even though they were playing their fourth game in five nights. The key to achieve that was on having a "good" defensive game and they achieve that by limiting Milwaukee to just 38.3% FG! Dallas lacks interior presence, but that wasn't needed against Milwaukee's poor frontcourt that has been missing both Larry Sanders and Ersan Ilyasova. Even though Milwaukee shot well from the perimeter with 11-23 3pts, they were terrible near the basket with 13-26 FG at the rim and 3-17 from 4-9 feet. This helped Dallas that had no legs during the second quarter and shot just 5-22 FG during the third quarter!
Dallas's offense is based on pick and rolls, with a lot of volume on this kind of play and also on transitions as well. However, Rick Carlisle knows that this kind of game won't bode well for his team against Washington:
Rick Carlisle on Washington: "We’ve got good athletes, but if you lined us up with these guys in Speedos, it’d be a wipeout...based on that.”
Therefore, Dallas will try to make this game a halfcourt battle, something that will remove them from taking advantage of one of their main strengths on offense. Washington's defense has been improving their perimeter defense over the last three games, where they allowed just a combined of 18-62 (29%) 3pts! Washington is a tough matchup for Dallas given their athleticism on two key areas where the Wizards have two great players in John Wall and Nene Hilario. I expect Washington to at least make this game a really close one and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Washington Wizards (+6) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
NBA - 505 Detroit Pistons @ 506 Golden State Warriors
Play #4 & 5
Detroit played at Portland last night and the game was like I expected it to be: both teams having clear but different edges on offenses. Portland's perimeter offense had a field day against the slow footed Pistons defense. They shot 11-23 (48%) 3pts and 11-22 FG from 16-23 feet, while showing a great offensive flow with the Blazers creating open shots after open shots. However, Detroit had a tremendous edge down low due to their size edge that helped them to score 60 points in the paint and grabbed 18 offensive rebounds. Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond also shot a combined of 17-26 FG! Detroit's problem was that they lost focus on offense as the game went by. Their game started being more based on their guards than in continuing pounding the Blazers down low and they eventually lost the game. Brandon Jennings and Rodney Stuckey attempted a combined of 39 shots! For tonight's game at Golden State, Detroit will have exactly the same problem against the Warriors that they had yesterday against the Blazers. If Portland's perimeter offense was able to create a ton of open shots on the outside, then what can we say about Golden State's perimeter offense?
Detroit has already faced two teams this season that are good outside shooting teams: Washington on their season debut and then, Portland last night. In both games the Pistons allowed more than 10 treys on each game! Golden State is the league's best jump shooting, while David Lee will also create similar problems that LaMarcus Aldridge created with his mid-range game. So, I believe Detroit won't be able to stop Golden State's offense tonight. The difference will be on what Detroit will do tonight on offense. This is a back to back game and yesterday Detroit's starting frontcourt made a big effort, as Josh Smith played 36 minutes, Greg Monroe 37 minutes and Andre Drummond 42 minutes! Therefore, it won't be easy for them to have an equal effort as last night tonight, especially because Golden State will take advantage of that by setting a fast pace in the game. Unlike Portland, Golden State's interior defense is quite decent by allowing just 58.4% FG at the rim, while Portland is allowing 63.1% FG. When they faced a team with a strong frontcourt like Minnesota, Golden State held the Wolves to just 17-36 (47%) FG near the basket due to a great defensive focus from them. Golden State is coming from back to back losses at San Antonio and at Memphis, so I expect them to be fired up for tonight and make a similar effort tonight as they did against Minnesota last week.
Therefore, I believe Golden State will have an easy win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here. Considering the fact that I expect this game to be a blowout, with Detroit showing some energy on the first quarter but not on the second quarter, I'll be taking the 1st Half Over in here. I expect Golden State to set a fast pace from the beginning in here, with Detroit showing some resistance on the scoreboard via their offense during the first half.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 FIRST HALF Over 102 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 506 Golden State Warriors (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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