NFL Week 10 - 203 Jacksonville Jaguars @ 204 Tennessee Titans
Play #1
I believe this is a clear lookahead spot for Tennessee, who will host Indianapolis next week on a big win for them. The Titans are coming from a nice road win at St Louis last week, where Jake Locker struggled with 13/22, 185 yards and 0/2 TD/INT, but Chris Johnson compensated that with a big game: 150 yards on 23 carries for a nice 6.5 Y/C! This was the third time in four games that Tennessee's pass offense has a subpar game and so, it's clear dangerous for a team that is struggling on their passing game to be a huge favorite. Jacksonville's
Jacksonville is coming from a bye week and prior to that, they lost against San Francisco on a game played in London. Maurice Jones-Drew has his best game of the season so far against the 49ers with 75 rushing yards and 47 passing yards. Tennessee's run defense is just #26 with +1.2% DVOA and they are coming from three poor rushing defense performances in a row, so I believe that Jones-Drew has a good spot in here to make some damage. I believe Tennessee lacks the spot and even the matchup edges to be such a huge favorite in here and so, I'll be taking Jacksonville today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 203 Jacksonville Jaguars (+13) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
NFL Week 10 - 205 Philadelphia Eagles @ 206 Green Bay Packers
Play #2
As we all know, Green Bay lost Aaron Rodgers with a collarbone injury and so, Seneca Wallace is the team's new QB. Wallace struggled last Monday against Chicago, as he entered mid-game and had to lead an offense that is 100% made for Rodgers, but the truth is that even though Wallace had a full week to prepare for this game, he isn't as good as Rodgers, not even close. Aaron Rodgers is a brilliant QB who leads one of the best offenses in the league, even though he is behind an Offensive Line that is just #24 on pass protection with 22 sacks allowed. Therefore, not only I believe that Seneca Wallace won't play much better than he did last Monday, as the Packers' offense will now be more run-oriented than ever with Eddie Lacy and James Starks having a considerable amount of carries. Philadelphia's defense was horrible early on the season, but they have massively improved lately with -6.40%, +6.50%, -6.00%, +14.80% and +18.60% overall defense DVOA on their last five games! So, I expect the Eagles' defense to have a good performance once again today.
If Green Bay wants to win today, they'll need to do it via defense. The Packers continue being a very good rush defense, even though Matt Forte actually had a good game against them last week with 125 yards in 24 carries for 5.2 Y/C. But Green Bay was so affected by Rodgers's injury that they struggled in both sides of the football in that game. Things will be different today and I expect Green Bay's defense to make a big effort today in stopping Philadelphia's offense today, who will have the inconsistent QB Nick Foles on a major letdown spot in here after a massive game last week in Oakland. I expect both defenses to outplay the offenses in here and so, I'll be taking the Under today on this game.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 205/206 Under 47,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
NFL Week 10 - 217 Detroit Lions @ 218 Chicago Bears
Play #3
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Chicago is coming from a MNF win at Green Bay on a game where they had very favorable conditions. Aaron Rodgers got injured, Seneca Wallace replaced him and struggled, but even with the Packers' passing game struggling big time, the Bears couldn't prevent Green Bay from running for 199 yards in just 29 carries for a great 6.9 Y/C! Detroit is coming from a bye week, where Reggie Bush had time to rest and heal from his minor injuries. The Lions' OL has been excellent the season and the lead the league in sacks allowed with just 10! Chicago's secondary can get really exposed when the DL can't put pressure on the opposing QB and this is exactly what I expect to happen in here, with Calvin Johnson and the rest of Detroit's offense having a big game today.
On the other side, it seems that Jay Cutler will be back under center today after a groin injury. He looked different on practice last Thursday, according to the Chicago Tribune, but bringing his plant leg higher off the ground than normal. I believe that Cutler is returning too soon, as he was expected to miss between 4-6 weeks with the injury. This doesn't seem to be good news at all for Chicago's offense, who will be a bit off sync today. I believe Detroit is not only the slightly better team right now, as they are also more prepared for this game and so, I'll be taking the Lions in here today on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 217 Detroit Lions (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NFL Week 10 - 219 Carolina Panthers @ 220 San Francisco 49ers
Play #4
San Francisco is coming from a bye week, after beating Jacksonville in London two weeks ago. On the other hand, Carolina had three games in a row where their pass offense impressed, but they struggled much more on offense against Atlanta last week with a poor -4.30% pass offense DVOA. This was the result of some poor play from Cam Newton, who had 23/37, 249 yards, 6-7 Y/P and 1/2 TD/INT against the Falcons. Curiously, San Francisco has been facing some weak opposition lately, as they faced Houston, Arizona, Tennessee and Jacksonville on their last four games.
But the area where both teams have been excellent is on defense. Carolina's DL has been even better than San Francisco's DL with a better run blocking and with 23 sacks over San Francisco's 17. I expect this game to be an ugly one, with a lot of running and with Carolina being indeed competitive. San Francisco's last three games went over the total posted, while Carolina saw the total going over in three of their last four games as well. This was due to the fact that they have been facing lowly teams and they take advantage of that to have good offensive games. That won't happen today and so, I expect both teams' offenses to struggle in here.
Both the 49ers and the Panthers are run-oriented teams, with great defenses and with two QB's that are game managers and nice runners as well. Therefore, I expect this game to be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 219/220 Under 43,5 @ -105 / 1.95 on Bovada
NFL Week 10 - 209 Oakland Raiders @ 210 New York Giants
NFL Week 10 - 225 Dallas Cowboys @ 226 New Orleans Saints
Play #5
***2- Team 6,5 pts Teaser***
Oakland will be once again without RB Darren McFadden, who got injured once again last week. Their QB Terrelle Pryor is also banged up with a knee injury and this is bad news for a QB who runs better than passes the ball. By the way, the Giants' rush defense has been really good this season by being #3 on run blocking and also #3 on rush defense with a nice -19.7% DVOA! This will of course cause a lot of problems to Oakland's defense. The Giants are coming from a bye week and prior to that, they won two games in a row due to some great defense. They will have RB Andre Brown for today and with Oakland's pass defense being #30 in the league and I expect the Giants to have at least a decent offensive game that will give them their third win in a row.
New Orleans has in Dallas an excellent matchup for them. The Cowboys' secondary is completely banged up right now and they would always struggle against the Saints' passing game today, especially as TE Jimmy Graham is a complete nightmare matchup for Dallas's defense. With DE DeMarcus Ware still banged up, New Orleans should have no problems on having a big offensive game today. On the other hand, Tony Romo will of course have a couple of big plays today, but the Saints' DL have been very good this season, especially at home. The Saints' only problem on defense this season has been against the run, but with RB DeMarco Murray struggling with a knee injury, I don't expect the Cowboys' running game to do anything remarkable today. The Saints are a very tough team to beat at home and close to impossible when their offense has a great matchup like today. So, I expect New Orleans to pick up the win today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 210 New York Giants (-1) x 226 New Orleans Saints (pk) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment