NBA Free Premium Play 11/22: Phoenix Suns @ Charlotte Bobcats

Phoenix  at Charlotte

NBA - 501 Phoenix Suns @ 502 Charlotte Bobcats I took the Over on Charlotte's last game against Brooklyn, on a game where we had a push due to a super low scoring fourth quarter (12-21). The Bobcats without Al Jefferson burned the clock down the stretch, but their half court execution is so predictable that they couldn't score for three minutes in a row until Kemba Walker scored a couple of free throws with three seconds to go. As I predicted, the Bobcats had a mega edge in pick and rolls against the Nets' dreadful defense on this area, while Kemba Walker had his best game of the season so far with 12-20 FG and 31 points. Charlotte as a team shot 10-16 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays and managed to score 52 points in the paint even without Al Jefferson! They didn't score more points due to their poor 18-30 FT and weak outside shooting numbers. Their defense continued excellent, but the Nets had a lot of demerit on their loss as 47.8% FG and 9-19 3pts should be good enough to win a game, but they lost because they were completely outrebounded by allowing 17 offensive rebounds to Charlotte, something weird given Brooklyn's size. The Nets also committed 19 turnovers and eventually lost the game. On the other side, Phoenix is coming from two losses in a row against Sacramento. During their current four-game losing streak, the Suns are committing an average of 15.75 turnovers per game, possibly because of Eric Bledsoe's absence. Phoenix's offense is similar to Charlotte's given the fact that both teams use their aggressive guards who attack primarily via pick and rolls, while the Suns are also a brutal transition team by being #1 in the league on this area with 23.3 fast break points per game. On tonight's matchup, it's important to check how both teams defend pick and rolls, as both offenses need badly to perform well on this area. Phoenix is #22 in the league on pick and roll defense, while allowing 0.79 PPP. On the other hand, Al Jefferson will be back tonight and this will weaken the Bobcats' defense due to his lack of foot speed and mobility. Charlotte is #8 in the league on pick and roll defense, but they are regressing on transition defense and they are already #24 in the league while allowing 1.19 PPP! Charlotte has been facing slow paced teams lately (Boston #15 in pace factor, Cleveland #20, Miami #17, Chicago #19 and Brooklyn #22), but Phoenix is #12 in the league on pace factor. Therefore, I believe this game will be a relatively fast paced game with both offenses playing well and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Over 190 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker