NBA - 703 Philadelphia 76ers @ 704 Indiana Pacers
Play #1
Philadelphia is coming from an overtime home win against Milwaukee last night, where they recovered from a ten point deficit with two minutes to go on regulation to send the game into overtime. The Sixers' offense managed to be quite efficient and they ended the game shooting 57% FG, with 34 assists on 45 FG made! They were good on pick and rolls, spot ups, transitions, so it was indeed a great offensive performance from them. On the other hand, both Caron Butler and Ersan Ilyasova had monster games, something that shows Philadelphia's poor defense as well. Philadelphia also committed 26 turnovers, something that shows that they took so many risks on offense that they got exposed on defense as well.
Indiana is coming from a win at Boston last night. The Celtics' offense looked good on the first half, with Jordan Crawford playing great and with the Celtics having a nice offensive flow. Then, right before halftime, rookie Kelly Olynyk got injured and the combination of Boston's relax mode in scoring easily against Indiana, the Pacers stepping it up in the second half and Kris Humphries replacing the injured Kelly Olynyk resulted in Boston scoring just 8 points on the third quarter, while committing 11 turnovers! Indiana ended the game with a good overall offensive performance with 47% FG and 21 fast break points. They also indeed managed to have a good edge down low with Luis Scola and David West scoring 17 points each.
Therefore, tonight's game will be a back to back one for both teams. Note that Philadelphia's spot is tough as they went to overtime last night, while Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes played 39 minutes each. On these back to back spots, Philadelphia has been involved in high scoring games, as they beat Chicago 107-104 and lost to Cleveland 125-127 and to New Orleans 98-135. Indiana can be a good scoring team on transitions and this will be a good spot for them after having faced three slow paced teams in a row in Chicago, the NY Knicks and Boston that are ranked #18, #29 and #14 in pace factor respectively, while Philadelphia is #1. I expect this contest to be a fast paced affair, something that the Pacers aren't very used. especially given the matchups their opponents have been giving them lately. I expect Indiana to have a nice offensive game tonight against the Sixers' poor defense and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 701 Sacramento Kings @ 702 Los Angeles Clippers
Play #2
NOTE: early game!
The Clippers aren't on a good physical spot for today, as they played back to back games Wednesday and Thursday, with both games being quite intensive ones at Minnesota and especially at Oklahoma City. They are now returning home and they will play this 12PM local time game against Sacramento. Their lack of depth on the frontcourt is becoming problematic, as it has been easy to score against them near the basket. In fact, the LA team is allowing 52.5 points in the paint over the last 7 games, while allowing near 70% FG at the rim! On this letdown spot for the Clippers, it's important to know if the Kings have been improving or not lately.
Their new Head Coach Mike Malone is still looking for the team's best lineups. Sacramento was playing with DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson on the frontcourt, but they were being constantly outrebounded and so, Malone replace Patterson with Jason Thompson and the results have been good so far. Sacramento's perimeter defense was also looking too soft and so, Malone benched John Salmons and replaced him with Luc Mbah a Moute, a player that gives more athleticism and especially more consistency to the lineup. So, the Kings with these changes were able to beat Phoenix two times in a row and their win at Phoenix was their first road win of the season!
I don't expect this game to be an easy one for the Clippers, as Sacramento will have an edge with Cousins down low and with Isiah Thomas coming off the bench, the team will have a clear edge over the Clippers' backup guards. On the first game of the season between these two teams, the Clippers won at Sacramento by 9 points due to big fourth quarter, but this Kings team has nothing to do with the team that played that game. In fact, only Cousins and Vasquez remain in the starting lineup since then. Therefore, I'll be taking Sacramento today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Sacramento Kings (+10,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 709 Orlando Magic @ 710 Miami Heat
Play #3
Orlando's Head Coach had the "brilliant" idea of using a small ball lineup to match Miami's small ball lineup as well. The idea in theory would be interesting, but Miami got comfortable and didn't have the struggles that they normally have on rebounding against bigger lineups. Miami generally gets outrebounded by their opponents, but this time they ended the game with 60% rebound rate! Defensively, Orlando double teamed LeBron James and of course, this generated a bunch of wide open shots for his team mates that ended with Miami shooting 15-24 3pts! With Dwyane Wade out, James Jones started on his place and took advantage of his shooting skills to make a bunch of treys.
Orlando's offense will also have problems against Miami's defense, who is the best team on pick and roll defense, something highly problematic for Orlando's offense. The Magic committed 24 turnovers, given Miami's high pressure on the opposing ball handler and ended the game with just 0.69 PPP on pick and roll ball handler plays. This should happen once again tonight. The difference for tonight's game should be on Orlando's defense, who will have a different attitude on defense and use bigger lineups this time. Dwyade Wade is also back, so the Heat will have one less shooter on the floor this time around. Therefore, I don't expect this game to be a very high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Under 203 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 705 New York Knicks @ 706 Washington Wizards
Play #4
Washington lost yesterday's game at Toronto once again because of their bench, as their starters had all positive team +/- numbers, excluding Bradley Beal. Toronto had an expected edge against the Wizards' poor interior defense with 20-29 FG at the rim and 50 points in the paint. On the other hand, John Wall had a big game and that seemed to make him forget about sharing the basketball, as Washington had just 17 assists during the whole game.
This won't be an easy spot for the Wizards, as all their starters are playing super heavy minutes and this will be their fourth game in five days. A physical letdown seems inevitable in my opinion, as their second unit is terrible as seen on last night's second quarter. On the other side, the Knicks are coming from their best of the season so far at home against Indiana. They only didn't beat the Pacers due to a late foul of Iman Shumpert on Paul George. The Knicks even rebounded well with Kenyon Martin and Andrea Bargnani on the frontcourt! Washington is a decent matchup for the Knicks, as John Wall isn't normally a great outside shooter and this will give some rest to the Knicks' guards. With the Wizards being on a poor spot with no bench against the rested Knicks, I expect the NY team to take advantage of that for a good win tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 New York Knicks (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 711 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 712 Houston Rockets
Play #5
Houston is coming from a mega game at Dallas, where they lost at the end on a super high scoring contest. Dwight Howard had a massive game and started the contest with 11-11 FG, but he had a super easy matchup against Samuel Dalembert and DeJuan Blair. Things will be much tougher against Nikola Pekovic tonight. In fact, both the Rockets and the Wolves defend post up plays quite well. Adding to this the fact that Minnesota is #7 in the league on 3pts defense with just 34.8% 3pts allowed, the Wolves' defense should cause issues to the Rockets' offense.
I believe both teams will indeed have some problems on offense, given the match ups on tonight's game. For this game to go over the total posted, this game would need to be played at an insane pace, with both teams wanting to push up the pace a lot. After what happened to the Wolves against Washington and the LA Clippers, where they played fast, tried to outscored their opponents and ended up getting crushed on transitions, even though they led the league on transition defense, I don't think Minnesota will actually want to push up the pace that much against a team that knows how to play in transition and how to take advantage of open space on the perimeter. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Under 216,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 713 Charlotte Bobcats @ 714 Milwaukee Bucks
Play #6
Charlotte lost at home against Phoenix last night due to their inability of shooting from long range: 3-15 FG from 16-23 feet and 3-14 3pts! The Bobcats attacked the rim with 48 points in the paint and 33 FT attempts, but that wasn't enough. Phoenix shot well from the outside, but not via their guards! It was their forwards Channing Frye, P.J. Tucker and the Morris brothers that combined 10-13 3pts! For tonight's game at Milwaukee, Charlotte will have another good matchup, as Milwaukee's guards are poor on defensive dribble drive penetrations from the opposing guards and that's Charlotte's main strength on offense. Milwaukee's defense is just #27 on pick and roll ball handler defense with 0.82 PPP allowed.
Milwaukee managed to be competitive at Philadelphia last night due to an excellent outside shooting game: 14-28 FG from 16-23 feet and 8 treys made! However, the Bucks didn't even try to attack the ball down low. Zaza Pachulia is struggling with 40% FG for the season and Ersan Ilyasova only wants to shoot from mid-range. This also made the Bucks struggle on rebounding. Charlotte's problem on defense has been on defending the perimeter. They collapse too much on trying to protect the rim and this is making them allow +40% FG from 16-23 feet and also a bunch of treys. Milwaukee's offense is a pure jump shooting team, so they will be a tough opponent for Charlotte's defense. Therefore, I don't expect this game to be such a low scoring game as the lines are showing, so I'm taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Over 183 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 715 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 716 San Antonio Spurs
Play #7
Cleveland's game yesterday at New Orleans was super bizarre. The Cavaliers struggled on the first quarter so much that they used 11(!) players during that quarter! The Cavaliers' offense is now settled into being just a bunch of pick and rolls via Jarrett Jack, Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters. However, they were incredible efficient on this kind of players with 11-19 FG and 1.00 PPP on pick and roll ball handler plays! This is why they only had 15 assists on 41 FG made! The only positive point of that factor was that the Cavaliers' big men were more involved on the offense.
San Antonio just keeps on winning and they won last night at Memphis, on a game where they were benefited with Marc Gasol's injury, something that allowed them to attack the basket with 56 points in the paint and 18-25 FG at the rim. The Spurs' elite defense won't have a problem with the Cavaliers' predictable offense tonight, as they are a top 5 team on pick and roll ball handler defense. On the other side, the Spurs offense has been playing well, but Tim Duncan continues to struggle on his shooting. A back to back spot won't be easy for him and so, the Spurs will be too dependent from their perimeter play once again. Therefore, I believe this game will be a low scoring one and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 715/716 Under 192 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 719 Portland Trailblazers @ 720 Golden State Warriors
Plays #8 & 9
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
The Warriors are struggling due to their lack of depth and Mark Jackson isn't helping his team by not trusting his bench at all. Thanks to that, the Warriors' starters are being forced to play a lot of minutes and last night at LA against the Lakers on an uptempo game, three of the Warriors' starters played 40 or more minutes and they weren't four playing a lot because Andre Iguodala got injured mid-game. Their fatigue was notorious on their inability to score near the basket with 18-37 (48.6%) FG against a poor Lakers interior defense Golden State will play their third game in four days, with this game being also a back to back game for them!
On the other hand, Portland isn't also on a good spot. They had a poor spot last night on their first home game after a road trip and Chicago gave them a good fight. However, the Blazers managed to get a comeback win due to their starting lineup where every player was on the court for at least 35 minutes. We are then in front of two jump shooting teams tonight with heavy legs right now, a clear problem for both offenses! However, I believe the Warriors are on an even worse position for tonight, as Portland has more options on the bench and their defense is programmed to defend 3pts shots. In fact, the Blazers led the league in 3pts defense with just 29.5% 3pts allowed! Therefore, I expect this game to be a low scoring 50/50 one and so, I'll be taking Portland on a Single Dime Play and the Under on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 719/720 Under 198 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719 Portland Trailblazers (+3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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