Play #1
It's good that Oklahoma City faced a shorthanded Milwaukee team, as they would have lost the game against the Bucks at 100%. Oklahoma City showed a clear lack of energy and they were coming from tough road games at LA against the Clippers and at Golden State and so, they couldn't handle the spot very well. They struggled everywhere offensively with just 17 assists: they were poor down low and both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook couldn't even get 10 FT attempts, something that shows their clear lack of aggression during the game. Thanks to that, Milwaukee was able to keep fighting for the win, even though they had pretty much no inside game with Zaza Pachulia shooting 3-13 FG! Milwaukee managed to get some offensive production from transitions with 16 fast break points and some outside shooting via O.J. Mayo. Oklahoma City's tired starters were clearly saved by their bench, with their main five bench players (Collison, Lamb, Adams, Jackson and Fisher) having net positives of +16, +10, +10, +11 and +5, while the best of the starting five was Westbrook with a +8!
Denver is coming from a clear loss at Houston, where their defense was horrible. Of course starting a frontcourt formed by J.J. Hickson and Kenneth Faried is a bad idea for any team that wants to have a good defensive performance, as they both struggle on protecting the basket and on their defensive positioning. However, Denver's guards weren't much better on defense. Houston's backcourt did whatever they wanted on offense, with easy pick and rolls and a kick out game that worked perfectly with Houston shooting 9-21 3pts, but also 23-30 (77%) FG near the basket! Of course Denver's offense also created some good production, as Houston's perimeter defense is very soft and so, Denver's most aggressive players had success against them: Ty Lawson with 11-19 FG and Wilson Chandler with 5-10 FG, but that wasn't enough especially because Dwight Howard had a good day at the free throw line with 17-24 FT!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 506 Oklahoma City Thunder (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 509 Golden State Warriors @ 510 Utah Jazz
Play #2
This is the second game of a home-home series between these two teams, as they faced each other last Saturday at Golden State, where the Warriors crushed Utah by 102-88. The Jazz went to that game on a tough spot, as they had played a competitive game at home against San Antonio the night before. Their bench is terrible, so Coach Tyrone Corbin was forced to use their starters a lot against the Spurs to keep his team competitive and so, Gordon Hayward played 43 minutes in that game, Richard Jefferson also 43 minutes and Derrick Favors 37 minutes. So, in the following night at Golden State, the Warriors didn't have problems in crushing the Jazz right from the start, outscoring them by 27-13 in the first quarter.
The most surprising thing of that game was the fact that Utah actually shot well from the outside! Not just they shot 8-17 3pts for a great 47%, as they also shot 7-16 (44%) FG from 16-23 feet! The main reason why the Jazz lost against the Warriors so clearly was their high number of turnovers (19) and also due to the fact that the Warriors are a very good team in protecting the basket, something that forced the Jazz to shoot from the outside. On the other side, Golden State's offense did whatever they wanted to do by crushing Utah down low with 46 points in the paint and also shooting well from the outside.
I don't expect tonight's game to be much different from last Saturday's game between these two teams. The Warriors will once again do whatever they want to do with the Jazz's poor defense, but I believe Utah will show more aggression at home, especially because they will also be on a better spot this time around. Therefore, I believe Utah will make things a bit more competitive this time thanks to a better offensive game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Over 195,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 511 Memphis Grizzlies @ 512 Los Angeles Clippers
Play #3
Yesterday I took Memphis as they had a favorable matchup at Sacramento, but things should be different tonight. First of all, this will be the third game in four nights for Memphis, with the first two games being on the road at LA against the Lakers and at Sacramento, where the Grizzlies didn't rotate their roster a lot. In fact, Marc Gasol played 42 minutes against the Lakers and 39 minutes against the Kings yesterday! Until now, Memphis's defense has been disappointing especially on the perimeter where their aggressive approach has been well explored by their opponents to make wide open shots on the weak side. This wasn't visible yesterday as Sacramento is a poor jump shooting team, who has a terrible offensive spacing. This is why they shot 4-15 FG from 16-23 feet and 7-23 3pts! However, things will be different tonight as the Clippers' offense has been playing really well on the early season.
The Clippers are coming from a subpar game against the Nets, where they struggled to win even though Brooklyn was missing several starters. This was a lazy performance by the LA team, but things will be different today, as the rivalry between the Clippers and the Grizzlies is huge due to their previous playoff series between them and the Clippers are on a revenge spot tonight, as they lost a playoff series to Memphis last season. Looking at the Grizzlies' poor form and the Clippers' good basketball so far in the season, I expect the LA team to take advantage of that to pound Memphis as much as they can, giving them an easy blowout win today. Therefore, I'll be taking the Clippers in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 512 Los Angeles Clippers (-8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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