NBA - 507 Toronto Raptors @ 508 Milwaukee Bucks
Play #1
Milwaukee's starting lineup is completely incompetent on offense. Gary Neal, O.J. Mayo and Caron Butler lack playmaking skills and that is exposed on the terrible offensive flow that the team has. What saved them last night was an excellent fourth quarter by the team's second unit, but that looked like a random happening that won't be repeated in the following games. Zaza Pachulia, John Henson, Kris Middleton and Nate Wolters don't seem like a consistent offensive lineup at all!
Speaking of offensive flow, Toronto's isn't much better as they had just 15 assists for the second game in a row. It's only necessary to check the team's shot distribution to see that something is wrong: Rudy Gay and DeMar DeRozan combining 46 FG attempts!!! The Raptors were capable of scoring 48 points in the paint yesterday because Atlanta's interior defense with Al Horford and Paul Millsap isn't an elite unit. On the other side, Toronto's defense struggle against Atlanta's big man with Al Horford crushing Jonas Valanciunas, ending the game with 9-14 FG, 22 points and 16 rebounds! Also Paul Millsap shot 7-12 FG on a good performance for him as well.
On tonight's matchup, Toronto's defense won't need to worry a lot with Milwaukee's big men as they lack offensive skills. Milwaukee's starting unit is struggling offensively anyway, so I believe Toronto will make a defensive bounce back tonight. On the other side, Toronto's offense is just too stagnant to be a good unit and I don't expect them to improve on this area any sooner. Therefore, I expect a low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 192 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 503 Chicago Bulls @ 504 Philadelphia 76ers
Play #2
Philadelphia is incredibly 2-0 right now, even though they were double digits underdogs in both games! As it happened during the preseason, the Sixers are playing at an incredible fast pace! In fact, yesterday's game against the Wizards had a pace factor of 103! Philadelphia won these two teams due to their scoring in the paint, as they scored 50 points there against Miami and an incredible 74 points against Washington! However, they won't be facing an undersized team this time. They'll be facing the Bulls' elite frontcourt defense that will prevent Philadelphia from easily scoring on the paint tonight.
The Sixers will struggle this season on back to back games due to their incredible fast pace and also due to all their starters playing a lot each game. In fact, all their starters played at least for 30 minutes yesterday! Even though the Sixers looked good on offense in their first two games, they shot just a combined of 14-44 (31%) 3pts and this shows how much they need to score near the basket on their games. That was doable against Miami's and Washington's undersized frontcourts, but that won't happen tonight against the Bulls. With tired legs and poor outside shooting, the Sixers' offense will collapse tonight.
Chicago struggled to beat the Knicks after almost choking the game away on the fourth quarter. Their offensive problems on half court were clear, especially with Derrick Rose lacking confidence on his game. However, it's important to note that Chicago faced on their first two games of the season teams that know how to use traps on the ball handlers and that can force turnovers to their opponents. Philadelphia lack this kind of skills and on a fast paced game, Derrick Rose will absolutely dominate against the rookie Michael Carter-Williams. The Sixers' defense is quite weak and a good passing team like the Bulls will find easy shots after easy shots tonight. I expect an easy win for Chicago tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Chicago Bulls (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 505 Charlotte Bobcats @ 506 New Orleans Pelicans
Play #3
Charlotte is coming from a nice home win over Cleveland last night, where they didn't play without Al Jefferson. Without him, the Bobcats are very perimeter-based like they were last season, but that wasn't a problem yesterday as the Cleveland's perimeter defense has been poor this season. However, Charlotte has merit on their offensive performance yesterday as their new coach was able to implement an interesting offensive system that provides a lot of off the ball movement from their guards. Josh McRoberts played like a point forward and ended the game with 8 assists! The Bobcats' offense looked good until Cleveland decided to pack the paint down the stretch and that made Charlotte's offense struggle a bit in the end. On the other hand, Charlotte's defense seems to be for real after a good preseason as well. The only issue that the Bobcats' defense has is on 3pts defense, but the Cavaliers didn't explore that due to some poor ball movement.
On the other hand, the Pelicans got crushed at Orlando last night. New Orleans won the boards battle (17-5 edge on offensive rebounds) and avoided turnovers well with just 12 committed. Orlando's best player Nikola Vucevic was also well limited with just 4-6 FG, 10 points and 7 rebounds. However, the Pelicans were still crushed on this game via a great jump shooting night from the Magic's guards: Arron Afflalo 10-14 FG, Jameer Nelson 3-8 FG and Moe Harkless 6-10 FG! This is worrying for the Pelicans, as Charlotte plays with a similar style and New Orleans's perimeter defense continues to be a mess! But the biggest problem for the Pelicans was on offense with just 34.8% FG and 16 assists against a lowly team like Orlando! Ryan Anderson's absence is being very well noted, as the Pelicans can't spread the floor on offense! With Tyreke Evans looking very rusty, the Pelicans really lack offensive skills to be effective.
These problems of the Pelicans' offense against Charlotte's defense will be well explored, as Jrue Holiday won't have a clear edge against Kemba Walker's good defense. With Ryan Anderson out, New Orleans doesn't have firepower on the perimeter to torch Charlotte's main defensive weakness, so this should be another struggling night for New Orleans's offense. Without Al Jefferson, the Bobcats will be dependent from their guards on offense and they might have some success tonight, as the Pelicans' backcourt defense continues very poor, with Jrue Holiday surprisingly showing some poor defense early on the season. Therefore, I expect a close game in here and so, I'll be taking the Bobcats tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Charlotte Bobcats (+8,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 511 Houston Rockets @ 512 Utah Jazz
Play #4
Utah is a team that gambles a lot on offense and even though they can indeed make some nice plays, they are also very turnover prone. They committed 22 turnovers against Oklahoma City and they committed another 20 last night at Phoenix. The Jazz's outside shooting continues to be weak and so, they need to have a clear inside edge to be competitive. They managed to do that against Phoenix yesterday, especially via 22 offensive rebounds, but they won't be able to do that against Dwight Howard and Omer Asik tonight.
On the other side, Houston will have a clear backcourt edge tonight. Coach Tyrone Corbin continues to be John Lucas for over 30 minutes per game and with that the Jazz's backcourt is just too weak to face Chandler Parsons, James Harden and Jeremy Lin. Alec Burks is a nice defender, but he can't perform miracles playing alongside the veteran Richard Jefferson and John Lucas in the starting lineup. Therefore, I expect an easy win for Houston tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511 Houston Rockets (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 513 San Antonio Spurs @ 514 Portland Trailblazers
Play #5
I like Portland to win tonight on their home debut. Without Tim Duncan, the Spurs interior defense loses its leader and they will struggle to defend someone like LaMarcus Aldridge in here. Already last night at LA against the Lakers, Pau Gasol dominuted with 8-17 FG, 20 points and 11 rebounds in just 29 minutes! While the Lakers have a lineup full of guards and have on their outside shooting their main offensive play, the Blazers know how to play to Aldrdige and he coming from a domination at Denver with 12-26 FG!
Besides that Portland has also the ability of doing some good damage on the outside as well and they shot 14-22 3pts! The Blazers are a good team at home and they have the right weapon to outplay the Spurs that definitely miss Tim Duncan, as without him they are forced to use Boris Diaw and Matt Bonner to defend someone like LaMarcus Aldridge. Therefore, I'll be taking the Blazers tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 514 Portland Trailblazers ML @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker
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