Play #1
Boston is coming from four wins in a row, including a win at home against Orlando last Monday, where they shot a league season-high 60% FG! I liked their offensive flow, even though Orlando was indeed a perfect matchup for them. Definitely Jameer Nelson can't do anything in front of Avery Bradley and that turned Orlando into a turnover prone team once again with 20 turnovers that the Celtics used to score 20 fast break points with 13-19 FG on transition plays. Then, Jameer Nelson's poor defensive play doesn't help his team one bit and with that, the Celtics took advantage of Orlando's poor backcourt defense to make some nice cuts that they used to score easy points after easy points. Jordan Crawford with a 10/0 A/TO ratio was the game's highlight! On the other hand, Orlando's offense didn't play badly and they managed to get good shots in the perimeter, as Boston's defense is focused in packing the paint. However, the Celtics eventually won the game without much trouble due to a massive offensive performance.
Charlotte is coming from a home loss against Atlanta last Monday, where they gave the Hawks a good fight, especially during the first half, where they were impressive on offense mostly thanks to Josh McRoberts's great game in passing the ball. Al Jefferson returned to the lineup, but he didn't have an impact in the game. However, Charlotte still managed to have a decent offensive game due to the creation of good mid range shooting opportunities. Kemba Walker and Ramon Sessions shot a combined of 7-21 FG in a poor performance and the Bobcats aren't going to win a lot of games with their two PG's shooting so poorly. Atlanta had Jeff Teague on early foul trouble, something that conditioned the team's offensive performance during the first half. Then, on the third quarter, Atlanta made a huge run led by Jeff Teague who attacked the Bobcats with off dribble penetrations to find the open team mate on the down low. This is why Teague ended the game with 12 assists in just 31 minutes. Al Horford was also impressive during that quarter with 13 points scored. Charlotte's offense may be decent with Josh McRoberts and Al Jefferson, but the team's offense needs Kemba Walker and Ramon Sessions to shoot reasonably as well and they couldn't do it on this game.
Onto this matchup. I believe the current totals line of 192.5 points isn't taking in consideration the development of both teams' offenses lately. Since Boston inserted Jordan Crawford into the starting lineup at the PG position, sending Avery Bradley into the SG position, their offense improved a lot. The consequence of that was four wins in a row after a 0-4 start of the season! The Celtics had an A/TO ratio of 57/84 on their first four games of the season, but then with the changes on the lineup, they had a 93/55 A/TO ratio on their last four games! Rookie Center Kelly Olynyk is now starting instead of Vitor Faverani and this gave the Celtics a boost on offense as well, as not only Olynyk has a nice shooting range, as he also has a good court vision. This is why he had 5 assists against Orlando last Monday! The way Boston attacks the rim on offense to pass the ball into the open team mate will cause a lot of problems to Charlotte's defense, as seen during the third quarter of their game against Atlanta last Monday. On the other hand, with Al Jefferson back into the starting lineup, Charlotte's backcourt will have more space to shoot the ball on offense. They struggled against Atlanta on this area with just 5-20 FG from 16-23 feet, but I believe that they will bounce back in here. Boston's inside defense with Brandon Bass and Kelly Olynyk is quite weak as well and so, I believe Charlotte will see their guards having a decent game in here, after a disappointing performance on the team's last game. I believe this will be a high scoring affair and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Over 192,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 707 Toronto Raptors @ 708 Memphis Grizzlies
Play #2 & 3
Toronto is coming from a close loss at Houston last Monday, where they only lost the game on double overtime. This was a nice performance from Toronto, especially on defense. The Raptors were good even on pick and roll defense, where they usually struggle, especially on the second half where they made a huge effort. Toronto also confirmed that they are right now one of the best rebounding teams in the league by making this game a 50/50 one on the boards battle, even though Jonas Valanciunas played just 30 minutes due to foul trouble. Houston eventually won the game on double overtime, even though they had several players battling illness and James Harden clearly banged up. The Raptors did a good job on transition defense and on securing defensive boards, something that stopped Houston's offense barring Jeremy Lin who was on fire the whole game. On offense, Toronto was a complete disaster with 10 assists in 58 minutes of basket!!! Rudy Gay and DeMar DeRozan were ball hogs once again with a combined shooting of 17-62 FG! In fact, the play Toronto used the most on offense was isolation plays! Bottom line, the Raptors fought a lot, but eventually fell short to beat the Rockets. The brutal effort is clear on the total minutes played by their main players: DeMar DeRozan 53 minutes, Kyle Lowry 48 minutes and Rudy Gay 49 minutes!
Memphis is coming from a road loss at Indiana last Monday. The Grizzlies were outplayed by a similar team by shooting just 11-22 FG at the rim and 8-19 FG from 4-9 feet. These weren't horrible numbers, but when the team can't once again shoot well from the outside with 5-18 (27.8%) FG from 16-23 feet, while Indiana shoots 11-20 (55%) FG from the same area, Memphis couldn't have a shot to win this game. The Grizzlies couldn't count with Jerryd Bayless due to injury for this game, while Quincy Pondexter left the game after being elbowed by Ed Davis. Bayless is one of the most consistent outside shooters of the team and without him or Pondexter, the Grizzlies' bench got too thin on offensive skills to face a top team like Indiana.
The Raptors have been minimally consistent on pretty much every game due to a good effort on rebounding. However, I expect them to have a clear letdown in here, after a huge effort at Houston two nights ago. Memphis is a physical team, so I expect them to have a big edge in here. Toronto's post up defense is just #23 in the league and so, I expect the Grizzlies to have an edge down low on here as well. Defensively, I believe that Memphis won't have any problems against this completely out of sync Raptors' offense. Tony Allen and Tayshaun Prince will be ready to individually guard DeMar DeRozan and Rudy Gay, who will struggle to have a decent shooting efficiency tonight, while taking so many contested shots. Therefore, I expect Memphis to dominate this game and so, I'll be taking them in here in a low scoring contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 708 Memphis Grizzlies (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on BookmakerPick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Under 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 711 New York Knicks @ 712 Atlanta Hawks
Play #4
The Knicks got absolutely crushed by San Antonio at home last Sunday on their last game. There were some doubts how the Knicks would defend with Andrea Bargnani on the lineup and the truth is that the result wasn't good at all. The Knicks' switching defense came to the point that Andrea Bargnani was forced to defend Tony Parker 1*1 and the French player took advantage of that to have 8-12 FG and 6 assists in just 26 minutes! The Spurs used their usual pick and rolls, cuts and spot up plays to crush the Knicks' defense with 18-22 FG at the rim! On the other hand, the Knicks' offense showed once again poor spacing. J.R. Smith came back from suspension, but he was rusty and shot just 1-9 FG. Anyway, the Spurs' defense adjusted well to the Knicks. Gregg Popovich wanted either Boris Diaw or Kawhi Leonard to defend Carmelo Anthony throughout the whole game and so, Leonard came off the bench on this game. This worked well as Leonard had a good game with 7-10 FG in just 23 minutes!
The NY team will now play at Atlanta and it seems like Amare Stoudemire won't play this game, while Kenyon Martin will be available. Coach Mike Woodson said that he is mulling a starting lineup change with Metta World Peace and J.R. Smith being under consideration to enter the lineup. The truth is that the Knicks' defensive timing right now is a disaster and any team with good ball movement can expose that without any problems. San Antonio did exactly that against them last Sunday and Atlanta has every condition to do the same in here today as well. The Hawks are #2 in the league on assists rate with an impressive 71.6% and with a mobile frontcourt led by Al Horford and Paul Millsap, I believe the Knicks' defense will struggle to make the right rotations on defense and Atlanta is the kind of team that can expose that very well, as they are good shooters from every zone of the court.
Atlanta's defense is far from being an elite unit, but the Knicks' offense with J.R. Smith will have problems on their ball movement, something normal considering the Knicks have J.R. Smith, Carmelo Anthony and Andrea Bargnani all playing major minutes. Pablo Prigioni will get less playing time with J.R. Smith back as well and this will destroy the Knicks' offensive flow even more. Atlanta's perimeter defense hasn't been great with +40% 3pts allowed, but the Knicks' 3pts shooting has been poor this season due to their bad offensive flow with just 32.4% 3pts (#22 in the league). Therefore, I expect Atlanta to pick up a comfortable win today and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 712 Atlanta Hawks (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 701 Milwaukee Bucks @ 702 Orlando Magic
Play #5
Miami didn't have any problems in absolutely crushing the Bucks at home last night. They shot 58.2% FG and they were effective from all areas of the court. Milwaukee's Head Coach Larry Drew wanted to play small and of course, they got crushed by Miami's superior game. The Bucks continue to especially struggle at the PG position on offense. However, it's important to note that PG Nate Wolters was at least able to not commit a single turnover during the whole game, while Brandon Knight committed four turnovers in just 24 minutes. Anyway, I believe Jameer Nelson won't struggle defensively tonight for once.
Milwaukee's main strength right now is their perimeter shooting, as they shot 13-23, 11-23 and 11-30 3pts over their last three games. However, I think the Bucks' offense is a good matchup for Orlando's defense. In fact, Orlando is #4 in the league on 3pts defense with 29.7% 3pts and #3 on spot up defense! The area where the Magic struggle is on team help defense, where the opposing backcourt player attack Nelson off the dribble, enters the painted area, forcing Orlando's defense to collapse in order to close the rim, something that allows the penetrating player to pass the ball to an open teammate to get the easy shot. This kind of plays happen on pick and roll roll man plays, off screens and especially cuts. This is why Orlando's defense is respectively #24, #19 and #25 in the league on these three areas. However, Milwaukee is a jump shooting team like Orlando and so, they won't cause this kind of problems to the Magic tonight.
The area where the Bucks' defense struggles the most is on pick and rolls defense, something normal with rookie PG Nate Wolters being forced to play almost 40 minutes per game. On the other hand, the Bucks defend well from the 16-23 feet area and so, they will cause problems to Orlando's jump shooters in here. The Magic are coming from the worst defensive performance of the season, where they allowed 60% FG and 120 points at Boston, so they will be fired up to bounce back defensively in here. One aspect that made Orlando struggle so much against the Celtics were the turnovers, as Boston's defense put a lot of pressure on the opposing ball handler to force turnovers and then run in transition where they scored 20 fast break points. This won't happen with the Bucks, a team that is just #28 in the league on fast break points per game with just 9.8, besides the fact that they don't put a lot of pressure on the ball handler on defense. Therefore, I expect both teams to struggle offensively in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 195,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 703 Houston Rockets @ 704 Philadelphia 76ers
Play #6
The last thing Houston needed was to play a double overtime game at home against Toronto while having half of their roster battling illness. Dwight Howard, James Harden, Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parsons all played more than 40 minutes. Perhaps the most interesting fact of this game for the future was that Coach Kevin McHale decided on half time to bench Omer Asik in the start of the second half and start Terrence Jones at the PF position. It looks like McHale is giving up on the idea of having both Howard and Asik on the lineup, better late than never!
It's clear that the Rockets are incredibly banged up right now. Chandler Parsons played 48 minutes against the Raptors with back spasms and he doubted that he could play both games of the team's back to back games today and tomorrow. The same thing happens with James Harden and his sore feet. Francisco Garcia is battling flu symptoms, while Omri Casspi is struggling with a knee injury. With Evan Turner scoring at least 18 points in every game this season and with all his potential opponents for tonight struggling physically, this might be a dream mismatch for Philadelphia tonight.
Looking at how both teams play, this will be obviously a fast paced game. Looking at the matchup between the Sixers' offense and the Rockets' defense, I believe that Houston will struggle if Kevin McHale insists in starting both Dwight Howard and Omer Asik on the frontcourt. Philadelphia' starting Center Spencer Hawes is someone who plays almost exclusively on the perimeter, while Thaddeus Young at the PF position is too quick for any Rockets' big men. Philadelphia's offense focus on transition plays and pick and rolls led by rookie sensation Michael Carter-Williams, while Houston is the second worst team in the league in avoiding turnovers with a 17.1% TO/rate. The Rockets are indeed #3 in the league on transition defense, but I doubt that they will have the proper mindset and the physical conditions to actually defend well transition plays tonight. Regarding their pick and roll ball handler defense, it is quite weak especially on such poor physical spots as this one.
Looking at Philadelphia's last game against San Antonio, what can they do better today against Houston that they couldn't against the Spurs? Well, first of all San Antonio committed just 12 turnovers, so Philadelphia could only score 16 points off turnovers in that game. I'm sure the Sixers will have more opportunities to score on this kind of situations tonight. But what made Philadelphia struggle so much on offense against San Antonio was their inability to make long range shots with just 1-15 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-19 3pts! This was a shame, as they did really well on scoring down low with 20-27 (74%) FG at the rim! I expect Philadelphia to bounce back on their long range shooting tonight.
On the other hand, Philadelphia's defense had no chances against San Antonio's offense that used their sharp ball movement to torch the Sixers apart with 29 assists. That won't happen tonight, as Houston's season high in assists is just 21, while having a poor average of just 18.4 assists per game! Philadelphia's backcourt defense is surprisingly good and they are #5 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense! Therefore, I expect them to be able to limit Houston's quite stagnant offense tonight. I believe this is a great spot to back Philadelphia and face Houston, a team that is on a poor physical spot tonight, and so, I'll be taking the Sixers in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 704 Philadelphia 76ers (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 709 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 710 Minnesota Timberwolves
Play #7
Cleveland's offense continues to struggle and this was clearly visible on their last game at Chicago, where they had just 13 assists. The Cavaliers had 30% volume of pick and roll ball handler plays, but they weren't efficient in those with 7-24 FG and 0.57 PPP! They will now play at Minnesota in another tough matchup for their offense. The Wolves will put Ricky Rubio guarding Kyrie Irving in a tough matchup for the Cavs' PG and then the frontcourt matchup won't allow Cleveland to have a nice rebounding edge, as even though Tristan Thompson and Anderson Varejao have a lot of hustle, they will face the powerful frontcourt duo formed by Nikola Pekovic and Kevin Love.
Minnesota doesn't have an easy spot tonight. They played back to back games at LA against the Lakers and the Clippers without their head coach Rick Adelman rotating the team considerably throughout the game, something that forced their starters to play around 35 minutes on each game, with no player coming off the bench getting even into the 20 minutes mark! Cleveland has been a good defensive team, even though I confess that they are a bit overrated due to their easy schedule. However, it's a fact that no matter the schedule they had so far in the league being #2 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense, #5 on post up defense and #4 on spot up defense is impressive. Therefore, I believe the Cavaliers will have a fine defensive performance tonight, with Tristan Thompson and Anderson Varejao being ready to show good hustle on defense against the physical frontcourt duo of the Wolves. In fact, this will already be the second and last game played between these two teams this season and Kevin Love and Nikola Pekovic shot just a combined of 11-33 FG on the game played at Cleveland.
I believe the Cavaliers will continue playing much better defense than offense tonight, while Minnesota may be on a revenge spot after losing at Cleveland, but they are also on a poor spot that will make them struggle on their jump shots. I expect both teams to show some struggles on offense tonight and so, looking at the current totals line, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Under 202 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 717 New Orleans Pelicans @ 718 Utah Jazz
Play #8
We have two teams in here that are a complete disaster on long range shooting. In fact, New Orleans doesn't even attempt treys on their games! The Pelicans are coming from a loss last night at LA against the Lakers, where they attempted just 10 treys on a wild game with a pace factor of 96.5! New Orleans had a shooting volume of 51% near the basket, but their efficiency wasn't nothing special. With them refusing to shoot the ball from long range, they get ready predictable and it's "easy" to defend them: pack the paint! The Lakers did that last night and held them to 19+20+23 points on three of the four quarters of the game! Even though Utah has been a complete disaster this season, their interior defense is possibly the team's biggest strength with Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors! Therefore, I expect them to limit the Pelicans' offense considerably tonight.
On the other side, New Orleans showed once again last night that they struggle against good outside shooting teams, as they allowed the Lakers to shoot 11-20 3pts. However, this won't be a problem tonight as Utah is last in the league on 3pts shooting with a ridiculous mark of 22.9%! With both teams lacking confidence on offense right now, I expect this contest to be a complete brick fest! Therefore, I believe this will be a low scoring affair and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717/718 Under 190,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 719 Phoenix Suns @ 720 Portland Trailblazers
Play #9
This is the second game of the season between these two teams, with the first one being on the season debut of both Blazers and Suns, where Portland was completely surprised by Phoenix and clearly lost the game. In that game, Phoenix had actually a horrible long range shooting performance with just 4-19 3pts, but they crushed Portland via transition with 31 fast break points and an incredible 13-17 FG in transition plays! In fact, Phoenix's good transition basketball continues, as they scored 37 fast break points against Denver and 21 fast break points against New Orleans on their last two games! The Suns force turnovers and then run wildly on transitions led by Eric Bledsoe or Goran Dragic.
However, I think that Portland will come prepared to face this kind of game tonight. First of all, Portland is one of the teams that less commits turnovers per game in the league and so, I believe that they will use their ball security to slow down the pace and turn this game into a half court contest that will be much more favorable to them than to the Suns. Portland will always struggle to stop Eric Bledsoe's speed with Damian Lillard guarding him, however the Blazers will be ready for that by slowing down the pace and avoiding turnovers that would give easy transitions to Phoenix. On the other side, the Suns' defense has been quite impressive on this early season. They have a pretty athletic perimeter, while the Morris brothers are also quite athletic and defend well near the basket. So, it isn't a surprise that Phoenix is #6 in the league in 3pts defense with just 33.1% allowed! Portland is coming from three games in a row where they faced poor perimeter defensive teams (Sacramento x2 and Detroit), but Phoenix's defense will give them a much tougher matchup this time. Looking at all of this, I can't agree with such a totals line and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719/720 Under 201,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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