Monday, November 25, 2013

NBA Free Premium Play 11/25: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Indiana Pacers

  
Minnesota  at Indiana 

NBA - 703 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 704 Indiana Pacers

Play #1


Indiana is coming from a fun game against Philadelphia, where they won without making a big effort. This was by far Indiana's fastest paced game, mostly thanks to Philadelphia's style, but Indiana didn't have a problem with that at all. However, Indiana's defense still did a good job in allowing just 15-38 (39.5%) FG at the rim, while stopping Philadelphia's transitions as well. The Sixers still scored 19 fast break points, but with a poor efficiency of 5-18 FG! Offensively, Indiana had an easy task with 38 FT attempts, while their starting lineup also shot well with 31-57 (54%) FG!

Minnesota played at Houston on their last game, while playing their fourth game in five nights. So, the Rockets didn't have to do a lot to win the game. With James Harden out, Aaron Brooks entered into God like mode with 10-14 FG and 6-7 3pts with 26 points in 25 minutes! Houston shot 17-31 3pts and so, they didn't have a problem in winning this contest. Minnesota managed to keep things interesting due to Houston's 24 turnovers that resulted in 23 fast break points from Minnesota!

Regarding tonight's game, Indiana is the better team, but Minnesota should offer a tough matchup for them lately. Minnesota's defense has been struggling to stop the opposing perimeter offense, especially regarding 3pts shooting. However, Indiana is very inconsistent on this area with 35-116 (30%) 3pts on their last six games, so the Wolves should be fine on this area tonight. 

Minnesota's post up defense is good as they are #7 in the league while allowing 0.76 PPP, so they should limit Indiana's big men down low tonight. On the other hand, Indiana has been struggling to get back into defense where they are "just" #12 in the league on this area, while they indeed struggle on pick and roll ball handler defense, where their strategy is to allow their opponents to shoot from the 16-23 feet area. The fact that Kevin Love is a great outside shooting will force David West to get out of his comfort zone and so, I believe Minnesota will be a dangerous matchup for Indiana tonight and therefore, I'll be taking the Wolves in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Minnesota Timberwolves (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

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