NBA - 701 Indiana Pacers @ 702 Charlotte Bobcats
Play #1
Indiana is coming from a home win against Minnesota, where they did what they had to do. They defended well and took away the Wolves' 3-point line, the paint and the transition game. Therefore, all the Wolves' offense had left were contested shots. Minnesota ended the game with 13-25 FG near the basket, 3-19 3pts and 4-12 FG & 0.56 PPP on transitions. The Wolves dominated the boards and had grabbed some free throws, but as soon as Indiana got their head together, they crushed Minnesota. Indiana had their usual moments of sloppiness with turnovers, but they still shot 50% FG and 8-15 3pts!
Charlotte is coming from a home loss against Boston, who had 40% volume on pick and roll ball handler plays and spot ups. Assuming that Al Jefferson will play tonight, he will struggle against Roy Hibbert, as the later is #2 in the league on post up defense according to mysynergy sports. With the struggles that the Bobcats always have with their outside shooting, they will only have their pick and roll game, where Indiana's defense is #13 in the league with 0.74 PPP allowed. However, Indiana with their length might force turnovers to the Bobcats. Both teams have excellent interior defense, and while this isn't a surprise for the Pacers, it is for the Charlotte who have allowed just 50.8% FG at the rim over their last seven games! So, the Pacers' perimeter will also need to make some shots from the outside to compensate this. Even though Indiana is coming from a nice outside game against Minnesota, they are quite inconsistent on their perimeter shooting and I struggle to believe that they will have another good game on this area tonight. Therefore, I expect an ugly game tonight with both teams struggling on offense and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 181,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 703 Philadelphia 76ers @ 704 Orlando Magic
Play #2
Orlando is coming from a great win at Atlanta last night, however they will be playing their fourth game in five nights tonight. For a jump shooting team, this is a big worry. Yesterday on their blowout win against the Hawks, only Arron Afflalo played over 32 minutes with 36 minutes played. Anyway, looking at the way Orlando's offense plays with pick and rolls and post ups, Philadelphia's defense isn't nothing special in those areas, so Orlando may have in theory a nice edge on offense tonight, even though they are on a poor spot.
On the other hand, Thaddeus Young is returning to the Sixers' lineup and he will bring more offensive power to the frontcourt. The team also had 3 days off to rest and prepare this game, so they will have a huge physical edge over Orlando tonight. Philadelphia's offense depends a lot from their transition game and from the way that they attack the rim. Orlando's defense is #11 against transitions with 1.08 PPP, but they are allowing 15.3 fast break points per game over the last 7 games. Also Jameer Nelson will heavily struggle in guarding Michael Carter-Williams and even though there might be a switch on Orlando's defense, then Evan Turner will be guarded by Jameer Nelson and the edge will always be on the Sixers side. I believe Philadelphia has a great spot in here, given their huge physical edge tonight and so, I'll be taking them tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Philadelphia 76ers (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Play #3
Memphis is coming from a home loss against Houston, where they were phenomenal on defense over the first three quarters of the game. They knew Houston was a massive threat with their outside shooting and so, they put a lot of pressure on the perimeter to defend them. This is why Houston shot 6-24 3pts and 7-21 FG on spot up plays, while they were also forced to committ 22 turnovers! Then, on the fourth quarter, with Dwight Howard in the bench and with Omer Asik on the floor, the Grizzlies forgot to close the paint and Houston focused on attacking the open space down the basket. This is why Houston scored 52 points in the paint and shot 25-39 FG from 9 feet of the basket or closer! Tony Allen said it all after the game:
“We had a great game plan. We did it for three quarters. They just turned into a different team once they sat their starters” Tony Allen said after the loss.
Memphis on offense kept struggling on their outside shooting, an area where they need to improve now that Marc Gasol is out. However, the Grizzlies still had some success down low, as Kostas Koufos is still a fine player, even though he lacks Gasol's overall quality.
Boston managed to get a nice win at Charlotte on a weird game. Avery Bradley played just 9 minutes due to foul trouble and so, he couldn't stop Kemba Walker, who had 11-17 FG and 28 points, with excellent pick and roll numbers. For some reason, Boston's bench was the key factor on this win. Courtney Lee, Kris Humphries, Gerald Wallace and Phil Pressey had great +/- numbers! Even though Boston shot worse than Charlotte overall (43.8% FG vs 44.6% FG), the Celtics shot from the outside better, committed more offensive rebounds and committed less turnovers as well.
For tonight's game, Boston's defense is formed to stop the opposing perimeter, where they are #2 in the league on 3pts defense with 31.8% allowed and #1 in the league on spot up defense, while allowing just 0.87 PPP! However, this effort on the perimeter makes them more exposed down low, especially as their big men are all poor defenders. This is why they are just #27 on defensive rebounding with 72.0%, #25 on post up defense with 0.88 PPP allowed and #25 on points in the paint allowed! All these inside struggles will be excellent for Memphis's offense, who doesn't have a great outside game, but they have on their inside game their main offensive strength. Kostas Koufos and Ed Davis may not be Marc Gasol, but they are valuable players. In fact, Koufos had 4-7 FG and 6 offensive rebounds while going head to head with Dwight Howard! Boston's offense is very inconsistent and they are very turnover prone, so Memphis with Mike Conley and Tony Allen will create problems to the Celtics's backcourt. Boston would need to shoot lights out from the outside to compensate all these edges from the Grizzlies, but they are too inconsistent on this area. Therefore, I'll be taking Memphis on the moneyline tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Memphis Grizzlies ML @ -125 / 180 on Bookmaker
NBA - 709 Miami Heat @ 710 Cleveland Cavaliers
Play #4
Cleveland just keeps getting pounded. They are losing against other lowly teams, but every time they face a top team, they get massively pounded! San Antonio crushed them with 16-24 3pts and 9-18 FG from 16-23 feet! If there is a team that can have a similar production as the Spurs, that team is Miami with Dwyane Wade back at a good level and LeBron James at God like mode as usual!
The key in here is that Cleveland's offense is completely horrible right now, with no flow and very dependent from what Kyrie Irving can do especially via pick and rolls. The bad news is that Miami's defense is #1 in the league on pick and rolls defense with 0.60 PPP allowed, so it will be very hard for Cleveland's offense to get any edge over Miami's defense. The Heat have a decent spot for tonight and they won't be lazy on an ESPN game, so I believe this will be a very easy blowout win for the Heat tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 Miami Heat (-8,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NBA - 711 Chicago Bulls @ 712 Detroit Pistons
Plays #5 & 6
Chicago is coming from another loss, this time at Utah. As I predicted, the Bulls had an edge against the Jazz on the down low with 52% on rebound rate, 46 points in the paint with a nice 14-21 FG at the rim and 8-20 FG from 4-9 feet! Carlos Boozer had a good game with 12-23 FG, but that wasn't enough for the win, as the Bulls' outside shooting was catastrophic with 7-20 FG from 16-23 feet and 1-13 3pts! That's 8-33 (24%) FG! Detroit's defense has been struggling against good jump shooting teams that force them to make close outs on the outside, but their size on the frontcourt is a real problem against teams who can't shoot well from the outside, just like Chicago. In fact, Detroit is #1 in the league on post up defense with just 0.68 PPP allowed! Therefore, I believe Chicago's offense will struggle big time once again tonight.
On the other side, Detroit is coming from nice back to back offensive games, where they scored 109 and 113 points, but they faced Brooklyn and Milwaukee in those games! In both contests, the Pistons completely dominated on the down low while shooting more than 65% FG near the basket, something that won't happen against Chicago's good interior defense. In fact, the Pistons will have the edge offensively but via backcourt, especially with Rodney Stuckey showing some good form. Detroit has finally a nice chance to get a good win over Chicago and they will take advantage of that to get a comfortable win tonight on a game that promises to be a low scoring one. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Pistons and the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Under 185,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 712 Detroit Pistons (-3,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 713 Atlanta Hawks @ 714 Houston Rockets
Play #7
Atlanta is coming from a home loss against Orlando last night, where Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver played over 30 minutes. By the way, Korver is out for tonight's game, so Jeff Teague and rookie Dennis Schroder are the only available players for the PG position, while John Jenkins and Cartier Martin will share minutes at the SG position with Korver and Lou Williams out.
Therefore, I expect Atlanta to heavily struggle offensively in here, as they won't get a lot of quality minutes on the backcourt, as even DeMarre Carroll is weak offensively. The focus of the Rockets' defense will be all over Jeff Teague and the truth is that Houston without James Harden has been improving a lot their pick and roll defense, with Patrick Beverley being all over Jeff Teague tonight. Then, Atlanta's frontcourt will struggle against Dwight Howard down low.
Houston will have a huge backcourt edge tonight, even if James Harden doesn't play tonight, given Atlanta's backcourt injuries and the fact that Louis Williams isn't fit yet to play back to back games. The Rockets have an excellent spot and match up to blowout the Hawks tonight and so, I'll take Houston in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 714 Houston Rockets (-7,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 717 Denver Nuggets @ 718 Minnesota Timberwolves
Play #8
Denver is coming from a nice road win at Dallas by 110-96, where they had their best offensive game of the season so far with an offensive rating of 127! Their offensive execution was perfect, with the team generating good shots all over the court! Every time they had the opportunity, they would also ignite their transition game. The bench also played well, while their defense surprised in how well they stopped Dallas's pick and roll game. Wilson Chandler was Dirk Nowitzki's primary defender and when Dallas tried to use some zone defense like they had done at Denver, the Nuggets seemed much more ready for that this time around and didn't allow any comeback from Dallas! I was very impressed with the Nuggets after this game, as they are indeed improving a lot in both ends of floor!
This will be the second game between these two teams and in the first game played at Denver, the Nuggets won by just four points due to J.J. Barea's excellent game coming off the bench with 10-14 FG and 21 points! The crazy fast paced that both teams like to use favors Denver due to their superior depth that eventually gives them an extra gear down the stretch. After a great start of the season on this area, Minnesota's transition defense is now struggling by allowing 17.1 fast break points per game over their last 7 games! With the Wolves allowing 76.3% FG at the rim over their last five games, the improved Nuggets' offense will take advantage of that to pound them big time. Denver's offensive flow is also improved lately, as after dishing just 19.7 assists per game on their first six games of the season, they have dished 23.9 assists per game on their last seven contests! Right now, I see both games at the same level and so, I'll be taking the Nuggets tonight given the current line.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717 Denver Nuggets (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 721 Golden State Warriors @ 722 Dallas Mavericks
Play #9
The Warriors played a tight game at New Orleans last night, where they won by one point at the end. Golden State struggled on their pick and roll game, as Jrue Holiday defended Stephen Curry very well, who ended the game with a poor 7-20 FG! In fact, the Warriors' struggles on pick and rolls weren't exactly news for them, as they have been struggling for a while on this area with 0.30, 0.50, 0.68 and 0.08 PPP on pick and roll ball handler plays over their last four games! This is what can explain Golden State's overall problems on offense, as they haven't been to even reach an offensive rating of 105 on any of their recent games! Their lack of depth keeps being a problem and four of their starters played over 39 minutes last night! Andrew Bogut is returning tonight after an one-game suspension, but the truth is that the Warriors are 0-3 on back to back games this season, with losses at LA against the Clippers, at Memphis and at home against Portland!
Dallas is coming from back to back losses against Denver, where they couldn't stop the Nuggets' explosiveness, something that the Warriors lack. Due to tiredness and especially due to Andre Iguodala's injury, Golden State's perimeter defense is now struggling big time by allowing 11-24, 10-21 and 9-19 3pts against them over their last three games. Dallas is a good jump shooting team and they will take advantage of this and their nice spot to have a comfortable win tonight. I'm taking the Mavs in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 722 Dallas Mavericks (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 723 Portland Trailblazers @ 724 Phoenix Suns
Play #10
This isn't an easy spot for Phoenix, who had a 3-game road trip in the East and they had to travel from Miami back to Phoenix. On the other hand, Portland has a nicer spot, as their last game was at home against the Knicks last Monday. This will be the third game between these two teams and the Suns are currently 2-0 ATS in the series! Eric Bledsoe was the key, as he had 7-12 FG, 8-11 FG, 22 points. 7 rebounds and 6 assists in the first game, while on the second game on the road Bledsoe had 10-21 FG, 23 points and 6 assists! His speed and aggressiveness was too much for Damian Lillard, however he is unlikely to play tonight as he was still limping on today's shootaround and even if he plays, he will be far from 100%.
Phoenix's offense will struggle tonight, as Portland is a good 3pts defensive team and this area is a key for the Suns' offense. Phoenix's last two road wins were at Charlotte and Orlando, where they made 10 and 11 treys! Portland is currently on a great winning streak, while rebounding really well and improving on avoiding turnovers, something that will help them against Phoenix's aggressive defense. Portland is currently on a great run, they are confident and they have won their last four road games at Golden State, Brooklyn, Toronto and Sacramento. They lost on their season debut at Phoenix, so they will take this game quite seriously and therefore, they shouldn't struggle in showing tonight that they are indeed the better team of the two with a comfortable win. I'll be taking Portland tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 723 Portland Trailblazers (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 725 New York Knicks @ 726 Los Angeles Clippers
Play #11
I believe that both teams will be motivated for this game. The Knicks are desperate for a win, while the Clippers haven't played since early Sunday on a rout against the Bulls, so with Doc Rivers as their coach, I'm sure they will be motivated to crush the Knicks as well. Raymond Felton is probable for tonight, but according to reports he seems to be out of shape. Both Beno Udrih and Pablo Prigioni are too slow to stop Chris Paul, so I expect CP3 to have a huge game tonight! The opposing guards who are good on dribble penetrations are doing whatever they want to do against the Knicks and so, we can only expect Chris Paul to absolutely crush the Knicks' horrible defense. The NY team is just #24 on pick and roll ball handler defense, #29 on pick and roll roll man defense and #30 on transition defense. The Clippers' offense are an elite team in all these areas and they'll crush the Knicks tonight.
The NY team has been losing conference games against teams like Charlotte, Washington and Detroit, squads that are also yet to show some great quality in the league, as they have losing records. Now against a real top team on the road, especially with the Clippers being rested and fired up, I can only expect the LA team to absolutely crush the Knicks tonight and get a double digits win in here. I'm taking the Clippers tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 726 Los Angeles Clippers (-9,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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