Plays #1 & 2
I believe this is a great spot for New England to pick up a nice win at National TV. They are coming from a bye week and they will be getting Carolina at a poor spot for the Panthers, as they are coming from a great win at San Francisco, on a super physical game that left a clear mark on Carolina's players, especially on defense, as they faced the run-oriented 49ers. As much as the Panthers' defense is great, they won't be physically recover for tonight and I expect them to struggle against a Patriots' offense that is finally back at his maximum force. RB Shane Vereen is back and with him, Stevan Ridley, LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden, the Patriots will be able to use their very underrated running game to surprise Carolina's defense, who will be more concern about New England's passing game led by Tom Brady, especially now that both Danny Amendola and Rob Growkowski are back. After a slow start of the season, Tom Brady is now close to his best also because he has all his receivers available once again. Against a Panthers' defense on a poor physical spot, I expect New England to have a good offensive game tonight.
On the other hand, Carolina's offense is a 50/50 pass/rush kind of team. New England's pass defense has been decent this season, as they are #8 in the league on pass defense DVOA, however their run defense has struggled, especially over their last four games where they had +20.00%, -9.10%, +4.90% and +2.40% rush defense DVOA's. This is possibly due to the season-ending injuries of DT Vince Vilfork and LB Jerod Mayo. So, I believe Carolina's offense will bounce back tonight after a very poor performance at San Francisco, where they scored just 10 points, even though they won the game. However, I don't expect Carolina's offensive production to be good enough to match with New England's offense tonight, therefore I believe the Patriots will pick up the win tonight on a high scoring game and so, I'll be taking both New England and the Over tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 429/430 Over 46 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 429 New England Patriots (+3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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