Projected Line: 159 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Atlanta will be motivated for tonight, as they will be trying to avoid a franchise-worst road losing streak with a defeat tonight. Their offense struggled for most of the season and they averaged an offensive rate of 89.5 over a span of 7 games, but they have since bounced back by averaging a 107.7 offensive rate on their last 5 games! One of the keys for this offensive improvement was the return of Guard Tiffany Hayes, who has been a big boost on the team's shooting, as she is shooting 20-32 FG on the team's last four games! The Dream keep attacking on their usual style of being aggressive to grab FT and also force turnovers to score easy transition points. Therefore, they are a terrible matchup for Washington, so no wonder that Atlanta has won their first three games of the season against the Mystics with all wins coming from double digits points! Washington is #10 in the league in TO/rate and that is the kiss of death against Atlanta, who forced 21, 15 and 17 turnovers on the first three games between these two teams this season.
On the last game between these two teams, Atlanta easily won by 76-58, with Washington showing no aggression and having just 10 FT attempts. I expect the Mystics to be much more aggressive tonight. The first three games between these two teams this season were played on a fast pace and I expect a similar pace for tonight's contest, with Atlanta showing their improved offense and with Washington being much more aggressive at home. The first three games had totals lines of 162.5, 157 and 157 points, so with tonight's line being set at a much lower level, I believe we have great value in taking the Over in here in a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 651/652 Over 152,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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