MLB - 905 Miami Marlins @ 906 Pittsburgh Pirates
(Starting Pitchers: T. Koehler vs C. Morton)
Tom Koehler will start for the Marlins tonight and he shut out the Mets for six innings last Thursday, despite walking five batters. He got away with a 5/5 K/BB ratio due to the poor performance of the Mets' lineup, who left 18 players on base during the game! Prior to that game, Koehler had been pounded at home by the Pirates, with five earned runs allowed in five innings. Koehler struggles against RH batters with .262 BA and .320 wOBA allowed and so, I really expect him to struggle once again against Pittsburgh tonight.
The Pirates will start Charlie Morton and he won the duel against Koehler on that start in Miami, where he allowed three earned runs in five innings, while having a great 6/0 K/BB ratio! On his following outing, he got pounded by the fired up Cardinals, with five earned runs allowed in six innings, but he had another nice 5/1 K/BB ratio in that outing! This is why that he had a 2.87 FIP and 3.33 xFIP in that game, even though he had a 7.50 ERA! Morton will come from facing a very good hitting team like St Louis to a much weaker lineup like Miami's, who is dead last in hitting against RH pitchers (.274 wOBA) and also on grounders (.189 wOBA)!
I believe Pittsburgh will have clear SP & offensive edges for tonight's game and so, I'll be taking in the runline tonight for an easy win.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 906 Pittsburgh Pirates RL -1.5 (w/ C. Morton) @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment