Soccer Champions League - Zenit St. Petersburg vs Pacos de Ferreira
Pinnacle Sports odds: Zenit -265, Paços de Ferreira +845, Draw +430, Over 2.75 -114
In my opinion this is a perfect example of a market overreaction after just one game, I remember that in the first leg of this series, the totals line market was heavily favoring the Under as Pinnacle Sports closed the totals line w/ Under 2.5 Goals @ -142 / 1.70 odds.
Eventually the game ended with Zenit winning 4-1 and because of that the oddsmakers were forced to put today’s total line is overvalued as we can get a 3-goals line at decent odds. I watched the first leg and I can say that the final score was a bit unfair for the Portuguese team because they didn’t play as bad as the final outcome would dictate. What happened was an inexperienced team trying to be pro-active on offense, pressuring high on the pitch but by doing that they were exposed on the back and because their individual talent isn’t good enough for this level of completion, Zenit just took advantage of such holes and scored 4 goals.
The Portuguese team as a new coach for this season (that was a “weird” choice given his inexperience) and things could not went worse in the domestic league with 2 losses in 2 games and no goals scored. They know that their chances to qualify dropped from slim to almost none (and I’m being optimistic in here) so their mindset for today’s game is quite simple to predict in my opinion: “just not be embarrassed”! In this scenario I’m not expecting them to go all out searching for a goal, instead they will be more prudent and cautious or else they will be humiliated.
On the other side, the Russian team will control the tempo of the game, the qualification is almost done so there is no need to rush things. They have a big domestic league game in this weekend against Lokomotiv Moscow so we can expect them to play slow and manage their effort. They won’t have the same scoring chances than they had in the first leg because Paços de Ferreira won’t be positioned that high in the pitch today.
This whole scenario makes the Under 3 Goals a valuable bet for today and I’m just taking advantage of a market overreaction.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Under 3 Goals @ -132 / 1.76 on Betonline
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