(Starting Pitchers: L. Lynn vs M. Leake)
Mike Leake is starting today for Cincinnati and even though he has a 2.59 ERA, the truth is that his advanced numbers are much worse with 3.98 FIP, 3.99 xFIP and 4.20 SIERA! Leake is coming from another outing where he got away of it without any issues, as he didn't allow a single run in seven innings in San Diego last Monday. He keeps being one of the luckiest pitchers in the league this season, but luck might change today against a good hitting team like the Cardinals. Prior to the outing at San Diego, Leake performed a miracle at San Francisco, where he allowed just one run in six innings, even though he allowed 12 hits! Now against a Cardinals roster that is hitting .306 BA and .757 OPS against him in 108 AB's, I believe Leake will finally start regressing today.
St Louis will start Lance Lynn, who allowed one run on three hits on his last outing (six innings) last Tuesday against the Pirates. Lynn struggled a bit in June and July, but he has since bounced back with two excellent outings against Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. The Cardinals are 3-0 against Cincinnati this season with Lynn in the mount, as he is simply amazing versus RH batters with 2.11 FIP and 2.80 xFIP! Cincinnati's lineup has just three LH batters (Bruce, Votto, Choo), so I expect Lynn to have another good outing today and help his team in today's game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Cardinals in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 951 St Louis Cardinals ML (w/ L. Lynn) @ +124 / 2.24 on 5Dimes
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