MLB - 903 Milwaukee Brewers @ 904 Pittsburgh Pirates
(Starting Pitchers: K. Lohse vs J. Locke)
Pittsburgh will start Jeff Locke tonight, who is in complete fade alert right now. He struggled at San Francisco on his last outing with three earned runs allowed in four innings, with a poor control once again: 3/4 K/BB! He has a 7.50 ERA, 4.92 FIP and 5.12 xFIP in August, while having also a 12.6% K% and 14.7% BB%. He is missing his strike zone by a wide margin lately and so, Milwaukee's offense that is #5 in OPS with .776 over the last two weeks will pound him tonight.
Milwaukee will start Kyle Lohse and he has been even more solid as of late by posting six quality starts in his last seven games. He faced Cincinnati and St Louis on his last two games and Lohse impressed by allowing just three and one earned runs. He has a solid numbers against RH hitters with 3.98 FIP and 3.79 xFIP, so he should be fine against Pittsburgh's lineup that will be loaded with righties as usual. I believe Milwaukee will have an SP and offensive edge tonight over Pittsburgh, so I'll be taking them in here for the upset.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 903 Milwaukee Brewers ML (w/ K. Lohse) @ +120 / 2.20 on Bovada
MLB - 905 Philadelphia Phillies @ 906 New York Mets
(Starting Pitchers: K. Kendrick vs J. Niese)
Jonathon Niese will start for the Mets tonight and since he returned from the DL, he has been solid with three great starts: 1.29 ERA + 2.17 FIP + 2.97 xFIP; 1.50 ERA + 3.20 FIP + 1.72 xFIP; 6.00 ERA + 4.03 FIP + 3.94 xFIP! He is also coming from back to back nine strikeouts on his last two outings, good news as he has been facing tough opposition such as Atlanta (#8 vs LHP), San Diego (#6 vs LHP) and Arizona (#14 vs LHP)! Philadelphia will be a much easier opponent (.185 BA L10 games vs LHP), so I expect Niese to dominate tonight.
The Phillies will start Kyle Kendrick and he is on complete fade alert mode right now with a 5.91 ERA in August and a complete inability to strikeout batters with just 2, 1 and 3 K's on his last three games. The Mets's offense hasn't been great lately, but they have been facing good pitching staff such as Atlanta, Detroit and Cliff Lee last night. Now against Kendrick, they should be able to make enough damage for a comfortable win tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 906 New York Mets ML (w/ J. Niese) @ -127 / 1.79 on Bookmaker
MLB - 907 Cincinnati Reds @ 908 St Louis Cardinals
(Starting Pitchers: M. Latos vs J. Kelly)
Mat Latos will start for the Reds tonight and he has been dominating since the All Star break with a 0.89 ERA, 2.34 FIP and 3.62 xFIP, while having a 20.3% K% and 5.1% BB%! St Louis's offense has been playing well, but Latos has been dominating them this season with 2, 0 and 1 earned runs allowed. This is due Latos's ability to dominate RH batters with 2.31 FIP and 2.84 xFIP! Therefore, I believe Latos will be able to have another good outing tonight.
St Louis will start Joe Kelly and he has been playing well since he got promoted to full time SP, but his numbers in August aren't being as sharp with 2.20 ERA, but with a 3.66 FIP and 4.27 xFIP! His inability to strikeout opponents is also worrying, especially with a 10.8% BB%! Cincinnati is #2 in the league on BB% with 9.1%, so they will work on Kelly and make some damage on him eventually. Therefore, I expect the Reds to pick up a nice win tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 907 Cincinnati Reds ML (w/ M. Latos) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bovada
MLB - 909 Chicago Cubs @ 910 Los Angeles Dodgers
(Starting Pitchers: T. Wood vs C. Kershaw)
Clayton Kershaw will start for the Dodgers and he has been insanely good lately with a 0.90 ERA, 2.03 FIP and 2.86 xFIP in August, while having a 24.6% K% and 7.3% BB%! Now against the lowly Cubs, whose offense is just #28 over the last 14 days, Kershaw should dominate.
Travis Wood is coming from poor back to back starts against St Louis and Washington, where he allowed four earned runs on each game, while having some poor command as well. Wood has already been crushed by the Dodgers in August and the same should happen tonight. Therefore, I expect an easy win for the LA team and so, I'll be taking them on the runline in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 910 Los Angeles Dodgers RL -1.5 (w/ C. Kershaw) @ -130 / 1.77 on 5Dimes
MLB - 917 Oakland Athletics @ 918 Detroit Tigers
(Starting Pitchers: T. Milone vs J. Verlander)
Tommy Milone will start for the A's tonight and he has a 45.7% FB% plus a 11.3% HR/FB, so such a flyball pitcher against the #1 offense in the league versus LH pitchers and looking at their current form (>.300 BA in eight of his last nine games), Milone is getting absolutely crushed tonight.
Justin Verlander is coming from a poor outing against the shorthanded Twins, where he allowed six earned runs in seven innings. He walked three batters in that start and the truth is that Verlander has been walking a lot of batters lately. Oakland is #1 in the league on BB%, so they will work on Verlander a lot tonight. Looking at these two struggling pitchers, I can only expect a high scoring game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 917/918 Over 8,5 (w/ T. Milone & J. Verlander) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bookmaker
MLB - 919 Los Angeles Angels @ 920 Tampa Bay Rays
(Starting Pitchers: C. Wilson vs R. Hernandez)
Roberto Hernandez will be soon demoted to the bullpen, as he has been struggling during the second half of the season with a 5.22 ERA, .302 BA, .356 wOBA and a poor 12.1% K%! The Angels are still a good offensive team and so, I believe Hernandez will heavily struggle tonight.
The LA team will start C.J. Wilson, who allowed one run in 7.1 innings against Cleveland last Tuesday. He has been very solid in August, even though he had a tough schedule, as he faced Cleveland twice, the red hot Yankees and Toronto. Still, Wilson had a 2.36 ERA and 2.96 FIP in those outings! He will be rested for tonight's game with six days of rest and he has been excellent on this kind of spot this season with a 2.66 ERA! I believe the Angels will have a clear SP edge in tonight's game and looking at the fact that they had a day off yesterday, while the Rays had to play a make up game at Kansas City, I believe the LA team has a great chance of pulling the upset tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Angels in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 919 Los Angeles Angels ML (w/ C. Wilson) @ +127 / 2.27 on 5Dimes
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