Projected Line: 164 points
The public is currently on the Under probably because the Mercury won't have DeWanna Bonner, Brittney Griner and Penny Taylor available for today. But these injuries actually help this game to be a high scoring contest. Phoenix is coming from five straight subpar games, but all of them have an explanation. They got crushed by Minnesota twice because the Lynx are clearly the better team and they are always motivated to face Phoenix. Then, the Mercury defeated Atlanta at home, but they struggled a bit on offense, as the Dream are the #1 defensive team in the league. Finally, they played two games against Seattle, the second slowest team in the league, something that removes a lot of the dynamic that the Mercury generally have on their offense by forcing them to play on half court sets.
Things will be completely different against Tulsa, a team that is dead last on fast break points allowed with 13.6 ppg! The Shock's frontcourt is super powerful, but they lack mobility and the Mercury with small ball lineups will be a tough matchup for Tulsa's defense. Phoenix will come fired up for today, with a lot of aggressiveness, getting a lot of FT attempts in the process. However, the Mercury will be very undersized on the frontcourt tonight and Tulsa's offense will crush them with Liz Cambage and Glory Johnson on the down low. The Shock are also playing faster right now, as after 7.3 fast break points scored per game on their first 14 games of the season, they are now scoring 12 ppg on their last eight games! Tulsa's only problem on offense are the turnovers, but Phoenix is dead last in the league in forcing turnovers.
Therefore, I expect a very high scoring game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 653/654 Over 160 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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