NBA - 701 New York Knicks @ 702 Miami Heat
Projected line: 204 points
Yesterday the Knicks had an easy win against Atlanta with a 60-35 half time lead, so this back to back spot isn't that tough for them. Both teams committed a lot of turnovers, with the Knicks turning the ball over 21 times, while Atlanta had 25 turnovers. The Knicks allowed tons of chances of transition plays to the Hawks, as they scored 17 fast break points, but shot 9-20 FG in transition! If the Knicks give so many chances to Miami today, they will be completely squashed, as the Heat are #4 in the league in transition plays with 1.17 PPP! Besides that, Amare continues to defend terribly and Josh had a huge edge early on, but then Atlanta folded. So, I wouldn't be surprised if Bosh has a big game over Amare today. Carmelo isn't at 100% yet and today, he will have Lebron has his matchup! The only edge the Knicks might have is on Lin, who might have some edge over the Heat PG's. Miami will probably try to make some traps, but he is very good at finding shooting, as we all watched in the Knicks game against Dallas last Sunday. The Knicks should also get some edge on spot up plays, as it's the weakest part of Miami's defense.
Miami closes extremely well the rim, so only a reasonable game of the Knicks might make them competitive in here, something that might happen, as they have some decent outside shooters and the Heat aren't a top team in defending spot ups, like I've said before. However, the Knicks TO/rate have been quite high over the past 5 games with 17.51% and Miami might get some transition plays thanks to that as well. The Heat have a better bench than the Knicks and better chemistry as well. With the obvious offensive mismatches with Lebron and Wade, there isn't a single team that can prevent Miami from having more than 110 offensive rates right now. The Knicks defense might look good over the last 10 games, but they faced some lowly offensive teams like (offensive rate ranks): TOR #28, SAC #25, NOH #27, DAL #20 (109 off rates vs NYK), NJN #15 and a shorthanded ATL #14. Not very impressive, is it? On the other side, Miami is obviously #1 on this kind and I expect them to have a lot of offensive production tonight. On the other hand, I also expect the Knicks to make some damage on offense with Lin and their outside shooters, therefore I came up with a totals projection of 204 points, good enough for me to take the over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 199 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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