NBA - 805 Boston Celtics @ 806 Detroit Pistons
Projected line: Boston by 15 points
***TOP PLAY***
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
After a good win at Boston, Detroit defeated Sacramento at home, in a shootout game with no defense whatsoever. The result at halftime was 56-60, but a good second half of the Pistons gave them the win. In such a wild game, both teams played no defense on transition, with Detroit scoring 30 fast break points and Sacramento 29 points. The Kings also shot 14-19 FG in transition, while the Pistons shot 16-23 FG! As if that wasn't enough, both teams also had no interior defense, as the Pistons scored 56 points in the paint and shot 23-42 FG at the rim, while Sacramento scored 60 points in the paint and shot 26-41 FG at the rim. Just like it happened at Boston, Detroit had a super low number of assists, in comparison to the number of field goals they made: just 21, with a 49% assists rate! The Kings were just a bit better on this aspect, with 25 assists. So, we are talking about two teams who scored points in this game due to a super bad defense. Also note that Cousins completely outplay Monroe in that game, as Cousins had 11-19 FG 26pts and 15reb, while Monroe had 1-7 FG 3pts and 8reb!
"This game felt like the Washington game," said Frank, referencing the Pistons lethargic loss to the Wizards last Sunday. "Yet we continued to fight. We're getting more and more of establishing 'we're not going away.'"; "We know they like to get up and down," said Stuckey, who's averaging 28 points, four assists and 3.3 rebounds on 56 percent shooting in the last three games; "Our main thing was we needed to get stops. We knew they would let us back in the game."
For this game, I expect tremendous problems for the Pistons offense. They had offensive rates of 115 and 119 in their last two games, but it's impossible to keep having this kind of numbers with such a bad ball movement of 16 and 19 assists, with assist rates of just 46 and 49%! Considering the fact that they are indeed a bad passing team, with an average assists rate of just 55%, I don't expect these two offensive outings to repeat today, as against the Kings they had a wild game with a lot of fast break points and points in the paint, something they won't be able to do on a half court game against Boston!
On the other hand, Boston has Garnett back, so their paint defense will be much better than in the game between these two teams earlier in the week. Still, Detroit had just 14-20 FG at the rim in that game and now with Garnett back, I don't expect these numbers to be improved at all. Also note that in that win of Detroit in Boston, the Pistons shot 7-11 FG on ISO plays with 1.17 PPP, while their season average is just 0.86 PPP, so also in here they had unusual numbers. The truth is that the Celtics played that game without Kevin Garnett, which left a hole in the defense which the Pistons were glad to use to score seemingly at will. Greg Monroe went off for 22 points for 11-14FG! Today, with Garnett back, I expect Monroe to struggle today.
The Celtics are coming from an expected loss in Chicago, as it was a back to back game and the Bulls had a revenge mindset for that game. So, the Celtics got fulminated on rebounding and free throws, with Boston lacking any kind of aggression. But with two days off to rest, the Celtics have a good spot, they are ready to bounce back and also looking for revenge over the Pistons. I expect Boston to have a very easy win today and so, I'll take them in a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 805 Boston Celtics (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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