Monday, February 20, 2012

NBA Premium Play 02/19: Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets


NBA - 813 Utah Jazz @ 814 Houston Rockets

Projected line: 199 points | Houston by 3 points

Houston was completely crushed by Minnesota's frontcourt in their last game, as the Wolves scored 64 points in the paint, while grabbing 13 offensive rebounds, while shooting 55.8% FG! This means that Minnesota had 59.1% eFG and 51.9% offensive rebound rates in this contest! Unbelievable! Jordan Hill is out for this game, so Houston is likely to have similar problems against the Jazz frontline today, as Dalembert, Scola and Patterson don't seem good enough to handle Utah's frontcourt. 

On the other side, Utah is coming from a mega win over Washington, where they focused in attacking the basket with success, as they shot 23-32 FG at the rim and 7-17 FG from 3-9 feet. Their mindset will be the same for today. However, I believe Houston will have an edge against the guards of Utah, as both Harris and Bell are slow footed guards, so Houston's backcourt will have a clear edge in here. Even with no ball movement whatsoever, Wall shot 8-12 FG and Jordan Crawford 7-14 FG against Utah! I believe that with these clear mismatches for both teams on the offensive end, this game will have a lot of offensive efficiency from both teams. Therefore, I'll take the over in here. Considering the huge problems I expect Houston to have in handling the Jazz great frontcourt offense, I'll be also taking Utah in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 813/814 Over 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 813 Utah Jazz (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

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