NBA - 705 Los Angeles Clippers @ 706 Portland Trailblazers
Projected lines: 185 points | LA Clippers by 6 points
Portland showed a lot of heart last night by being able to take out the Warriors on the game, on an ugly game. In fact, the Blazers can only win ugly contests right now. They are playing with a small lineup with Batum in the PF position and even against a poor interior defense like Golden State, Portland shot just 16-33 FG at the rim! With very little depth right now, Portland is being forced to use their starters for a lot of minutes and yesterday, all their starters played more than 30 minutes, which puts them on a very tough spot, considering this will be a back to back to back game for them. They are a physical team who needs to overpower their opponents and with them having spent so many energies last night, this will be very worrying for them tonight.
Without Aldridge, Portland's offense has no flow whatsoever. Note that they had 28 ISO plays last night (27% volume), with 9-21 FG and a very good 0.93 PPP! But their season average on ISO plays volume is just 9.5%, with 0.80 PPP (#12 in the league). Besides that, the key for them last night was their outside shooting with 10-22 3pts, when they aren't generally a good team in 3pts shooting, as they are averaging just 32% 3pts this season. So, the Blazers had unusual good numbers for them on these areas and they still scored just 93 points against the Warriors!
On the other side, the Clippers had a poor home game last night against the Wizards, where they woke up just in the 2nd half to secure a 18 points win. The Clippers are perhaps the best rebounding team in the league right now. In their last 10 games, they have been averaging almost 32% in offensive rebound rate! Without Aldridge and with little depth on the frontcourt, Portland will see the Clippers having a huge size edge on this contest, with Griffin + Jordan + Kenyon + Evans! The Clippers will also on a better spot than the Blazers tonight and so, I expect the Clippers to dictate the pace of the game, making it a half court game, where the Clippers with their superior rebounding plus CP3 down the stretch will make the difference. In normal conditions this game should have had a pk line according to my PR numbers, but having in account the spot and Aldridge's absence, I believe the Clippers should have been favored in here by two full possessions and so, I'll take them tonight. Having in account the slow pace this game will have and Portland's problems on offense, I'll be also taking the under in here.
NOTE: The Greek, Betonline, Bovada and Pinnacle currently have 189 on this total.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Under 189 @ -110 / 1.91 on The Greek
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Los Angeles Clippers (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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