NBA - 803 Dallas Mavericks @ 804 Philadelphia 76ers
Projected line: 174 points | Philadelphia by 9 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAYS***
Dallas is coming from a nice win over Denver, where they explored the matchups and Denver's playing style very well. They knew they had to stop the transition offense of the Nuggets and make them shoot from the outside, where they struggle, especially on a back to back game spot. Coach Carlisle put Marion on guarding Lawson and then Miller when Lawson was in the bench and the result of that was Lawson to shoot 1-8 FG and Miller 0-5 FG, with a combined 4 assists! That's why Marion had a +/- of +29, the best of the game.Denver's transition offense was indeed stopped with 4-13 FG and Dallas also used zone defense to make Denver struggle even more. The Nuggets were horrible from the outside with 1-10 FG from 10-15 feet, 1-9 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-27 3pts, for a combined of 8-46 FG! Offensively, Dallas had a smart game, while shooting well from the outside with 9-17 FG from 16-23 feet and 10-26 3pts!
On the other side, Philadelphia is coming from a game at Orlando, where they had no chance. It was obvious that Howard would have no decent opposition on that game and he played very well offensively by continuously making all those hookshots! Coach Collins put Vucevic in the court with success offensively, but they were overpowered defensively! With Howard on fire, Philadelphia had to double team him and Orlando was in one of those nights where they couldn't stop hitting from the outside, finishing the night with an excellent 15-25 3pts!
Unlike Orlando, Dallas has no center who can dominate the game, so Philadelphia's perimeter defense will work well against Dallas. We will possibly have Young defending Dirk and Iguodala defending Carter. Dallas will be without West, Terry and Beaubois, which removes all their offensive game to their backcourt!
"We'll just have to make it work," Carlisle said. "With Kidd, we're going to have to keep his minutes reasonable. Dominique Jones is going to have to play some. Vince is going to have to get more minutes at the 2 position. We had Odom handling the ball a lot tonight. Look, we may have to be creative with our rotation."
Dallas has been excellent on rim defense, but Philadelphia has a perimeter-oriented offense, as they try just 23% of their shots at the rim, while they shoot 31% of their volume from 16-23 feet! That's where the difference between Philadelphia and Denver is huge! Philadelphia is shooting 39% FG from this area, while Denver is shooting 35% FG this season, but they are currently playing without Gallinari, so they are even worse right now. Both Dallas and Philadelphia commit few turnovers, they lack offensive rebounding skills and they also don't commit a lot of fouls. I expect this game to be a pure half court game, where Philadelphia will have a clear 2nd unit edge, especially against the Mavs depleted backcourt! Dallas had a home span of 3 games and this game on the road won't be a good spot for them, especially against a good Sixers team looking for a bounce back.
Philadelphia's last three losses were against Orlando, San Antonio and the Clippers. We have already seen what happened against Orlando and against San Antonio and the Clippers, they lost because of their P&R plays, as Philadelphia's big men aren't good in the P&R's high rotations. However, without Terry, Dallas isn't a good P&R team, as in fact they are just #11 in P&R ball handler with 0.81 PPP and #19 on P&R roll man with 0.92 PPP! With all these edges working in favor of Philadelphia, I'll take the Sixers in here in a Double Dime Play! Also considering the fact that this game will be played at a really slow pace, without a lot of free throws and with Dallas heavily struggling on offense due to their current lack of depth on the backcourt, I'll also take the under in here in a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 803/804 Under 181 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 804 Philadelphia 76ers (-2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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