NBA - 859 Los Angeles Clippers @ 860 Philadelphia 76ers
Projected line: 183 points
***UPGRADED TO DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
***UPGRADED TO DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Both teams are coming from defeats where they didn't look on defense at all. The Clippers are coming from a 92-99 loss in Cleveland, in a performance where they completely lacked effort. Irving's replacement in the starting lineup, Ramon Sessions, turned out to be a difference maker in the game. Sessions scored 24 points and dished out 13 assists, both season highs. His pick and roll execution made the Clippers look like the Clippers like to make other defenses look: completely lost. Cleveland shot better than 50% FG, with the Clippers being destroyed on P&R's, with 6-12 FG 0.93 PPP on P&R Ball Handler and 5-6 FG 1.44 PPP on P&R roll man! Today, I expect a defensive bounce back from the Clippers, whose poor defense on the Cavs game was certainly caused by poor effort and not for lack of defensive quality.
On the other hand, the Sixers also struggled on P&R plays in their home loss against San Antonio. The Spurs had 7-19 FG 0.87 PPP on P&R ball handler and 7-8 FG on P&R roll man with 1.67 PPP! Both Holiday and the Sixers frontcourt failed in the defensive rotations and they got exposed in cuts with 5-7 FG for the Spurs! This could be a problem for them tonight, as the Clippers led by CP3 mostly base their offense on P&R Ball Handler plays, where they lead the league with 0.93 PPP and 14.30% volume. However, the Sixers problems against the Spurs on this kind of play seems to be an isolated incident, as they actually lead the league in defending this kind of plays with 0.65 PPP allowed and 12.90% volume. In terms of defending Blake, the Sixers have already showed last season that they can successfully defend him. Basically, Elton Brand pushed him around and fouled him hard whenever he went to take off for a monster dunk. I expect to see more of the same tonight.
Besides the defensive bounce back these two teams should have tonight, this game will be played on a slow paced game, as that's the Sixers playing style, a kind of style that CP3 also likes to use to lead the Clippers offense, as even though the Clippers generally play a faster pace than the really slow pace of the Sixers game, they can also have some really slow paced games, like their game at Orlando, where the pace of the game was 83.05! I expect a somewhat similar pace for today and looking at the the spot for both teams, who will certainly be focused to improve on defense, in comparison to their previous game, I'll be taking the under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 859/860 Under 186 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 1 unit on 859/860 Under 187,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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