NBA - 807 Miami Heat @ 808 Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected line: 203 points
The Cavs are coming from a game against the Pacers where they scored 32 points in the first quarter, while Indiana scored a total of 38 points in the whole first half! Cleveland eventually won the game by 98-87, in a game that really was never even as close as the final score suggested. Indiana was so bad that they dished just two assists in the whole first half! Varejao's absence wasn't even noted in both ends of the floor, as offensively Erden was very good with 7-8 FG 18pts, while Cleveland squashed the Pacers on P&R's with 8-10 FG ball handler and 6-6 FG roll man! Defensively, Cleveland had no problems against a struggling opponent, who was on the 2nd night of a back to back game. Indiana had no offensive flow, struggling badly from the outside with 4-20 FG from 10-15 feet, 2-8 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-16 3pts! Nothing went well for the Pacers offensively, as they shot 7-21 FG on post ups and 3-16 FG on spot ups!
For today, I doubt Cleveland's defense can handle Miami, as no team in the league seems to be able to stop the Heat right now, mostly thanks to Lebron. They are completely destroying their opponents near the basket, not only at the rim, but also with a great mid range shooting: 60% FG at the rim, 55% FG 3-9 feet and 54% FG 10-15 feet! We are talking about the #2 post up team with 0.92 PPP vs #29 post up defense allowing 0.93 PPP! Without Varejao, the team lacks their best defensive player and even though I expect them to struggle against Indiana and they didn't, the truth is that Indiana couldn't find the basket during the game! Miami is averaging an offensive rate of 115 over their last 10 games and they are playing with a lot of aggressiveness, with good offensive rebound rates and free throw rates. Their athletic edge will be evident today and therefore, I expect another huge offensive game from Miami tonight.
On the other side, I expect Cleveland to cause some problems to the Heat defense with Irving and his drive and kick plays. This was how Cleveland was able to shoot 10-27 3pts against Indiana and Miami's weakest link on defense is definitely their spot up defense, as they are #23 in the league, while allowing 0.99 PPP! This will be the third game between these two teams and in the first two, Miami won and the game went under. In the first game, Miami won by 92-85, but note that the teams shot 46 and 50% FG! The problem was the 18+22 turnovers! Also Wade didn't play. In the second round, Miami won by 107-91, where Miami had a similar offensive game to the one I expect them to have today, with 46% FG, 56 points in the paint and 17 fast break points. Still, Miami shot 7-13 FG transition, not good! But note that Cleveland was without Irving in that game, which is obviously a huge loss for them. They shot just 39% FG in that game, with 6-23 FG on spot up plays, while they really seemed to be trying to run against Miami, with 8-16 FG on transition plays! Since the Cavs were competitive in that game until the last quarter, I expect them to have the same game plan today and also with a similar pace that was quite high (93). Therefore, looking at all of this, I'll be taking the over on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 198 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment