Projected lines: Miami by 6 points | 196 points
Miami played yesterday in Milwaukee exactly like I expected them to play. They were very well defensively and even though the Bucks were red hot on the outside with Delfino being amazing in the 1st quarter, the Heat were able to shut them down for the remainder of the game. Miami crushed the inside game of the Bucks, with 13-24 FG at the rim and 4-10 FG from 3-9 feet and with the Bucks being so dependent from the outside, Miami limited the Bucks offense and crushed them on the boards as well. Offensively, the Heat tried to use their interior game by being aggressive and trying to use as many post up plays as possible: 12-18 FG with 1.26 PPP! The good part for the Heat was that as this was a blowout game, they were able to rest their main rotation players during the fourth quarter, for the second consecutive game: Lebron 33min, Bosh 30min e Wade 28min!
On the other side, Indiana is on a losing streak and their coach Vogel has said it all about the team recently: "Poor transition defense. Too much gambling for steals. Not protecting the rim. Not closing off drives to the basket. "Should I go on and on?" Vogel asked; "Our focus right now is strictly cleaning up some slippage on the defensive end, getting back to being the number one defensive team in the league, which we were for the first part of the season and beating Miami," Vogel said.
Even though they have a deep frontcourt, Indiana is struggling to score at the rim by shooting just 56% FG this season. Miami is one of the top teams on this area and so, the Pacers will need a super game on their outside shooting to be able to beat Miami. Considering they are lacking confidence right now, I don't expect that to happen at all. Indiana is a top 10 offensive team on transition plays and in offensive rebounds, but Miami's defense is an elite team in both areas. Down the stretch, Miami is just too good with Lebron and Wade plus the difference of momentum between these two teams is just huge right now. Therefore, I expect Miami to carry their current momentum onto this game and get another good win on the road. So, I'll take Miami in here. Considering Indiana's problems on offense tonight, but the fact that they will be able to do a reasonable job defending the Heat, I'll also take the under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 199 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Miami Heat (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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