NBA - 503 New Jersey Nets @ 504 New York Knicks
Projected lines: 200 points | NY Knicks by 12 points
The Knicks are coming from an excellent win over Dallas yesterday, who had a super studied defense. The Mavs knew exactly what they had to do against Lin with traps and with Marion on him. However, Lin showed once again that he is an excellent player and was the highlight of the game! The Knicks did very well on transition with 16 fast break points and 10-13 FG with 1.44 PPP! Against one of the best rim defenses in the league, the Knicks shot 18-23 FG at the rim! Their only problem was the lack of efficiency on the spot up plays, with just 10-31 FG and 0.76 PPP! Besides that, they were highly efficient on their offense! Defensively, they struggled in defending Dirk as expected. They also showed a bad transition defense, as the Mavs shot 8-14 FG on transition plays with 1.29 PPP! D'Antoni used a short rotation, with just 8 players and Lin was on court 46 minutes. But besides him, nobody else played more than 35 minutes. This is a back to back game for the Knicks, but yesterday was an early game and this is a home-home game, their spot isn't that bad.
On the other side, the Nets are coming from a home against the Bucks in an ugly game. This game was bound to be a letdown for New Jersey, as they were coming from a big win at Chicago in the previous day, with their players being on court for big minutes. To make things worse, Avery Johnson inserted Brook Lopez in the starting lineup and the offensive flow of the Nets was horrible! New Jersey needed to play more to the post and Lopez "helped" the team with 0-5 FG on post up plays! As a team, New Jersey shot 14-29 FG at the rim and so, it's clear that their offense was a mess yesterday. New Jersey played big minutes with a 3-guards rotation with Deron+Brooks+Morrow and this didn't go very well, as they shot 5-23 FG! Their flow was so bad that even in transition, they shot 5-14 FG! Also note that they went 0-6 FG via offensive rebounds, a complete mess offensively! However, Lopez is out and so, the Nets will focus in what they do best: outside jumpers with a 3-guards rotation! This won't be a good spot for them, but they will be highly motivated to play well against their main rivals in the middle of Lin-sanity! So, the Nets will try to shoot a lot of treys and use their transition game via speed. The problem for them is that the athleticism of the Knicks can become a problem for them, especially via rebounds and the offensive skills of Amare!
The Knicks are playing very well on offense right now, they will have Melo back and he will have a very easy matchup against an undersized Nets guard. In the last game of the series, the Knicks won with Lin having a huge game coming off the bench. The Knicks were great at the rim with 25-33 FG and I expect similar numbers from them today, while I also expect the Nets to catch a bit of fire from their outside shooting. Still, the Knicks have a lot of momentum right now and I expect them to blowout the Nets in a shootout. Therefore, I'll take both the Knicks and the over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 195,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 New York Knicks (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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