NBA - 803 Orlando Magic @ 804 Miami Heat
Projected line: Miami by 12 points
Miami's offense was completely flawless on their last game against Cleveland. Everything was very well worked, while exploring every possible edge over the Cavs defense. This time, they didn't attack the paint, but were outside machines instead, as the size edge of Wade and Lebron over the Cavs backcourt was evident. Miami shot just 11-20 FG at the rim and 2-11 FG from 3-9 feet, however they were excellent with 6-13 FG from 16-23 feet and 14-21 3pts! Also note that from those 20 FG made from these two areas, 16 of them were assisted! On the other hand, Cleveland's offense has a lot of problems, as the rim defense and help defense of Miami is exceptional. The Cavs shot just 18-31 FG at the rim and 3-10 FG from 3-9 feet, having no chance to counter Miami's great interior defense.
On the other side, Orlando is coming from another wild game against Milwaukee, where they finished with a 17-0 run to win the game. After the first quarter, in which the Bucks opened up a 12-point lead with the score at 27-15, the game fell into a pattern. Orlando would go on a run to either close the gap or tie the game, and then Milwaukee would respond with a run of their own to extend their lead again. This happened three times in the second and third quarters! As expected, the Bucks had no inside game, with just 12-23 FG at the rim and 3-6 FG from 3-9 feet, having made most of their shots from the exterior, so when Orlando had an extra effort on defense at the end of the game, Milwaukee's offense completely folded. The Magic's backcourt also quite struggled against the Bucks defense.
Miami's last loss was at Orlando by 89-102. In that game, Miami was playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, with that game being also a back to back game, as they had played at home in the night before against Cleveland, in a tough game for them, where Lebron played 39 minutes, Bosh 36 minutes and Wade 35 minutes. Around that time, the Heat was still using a lot of 1*1 plays on offense, having just dished 19, 15 and 18 assists in their previous three games. Still, Miami shot 47% FG against Orlando's 42% FG, but the Magic destroyed the Heat on boards, with a 17-9 offensive rebound edge or 37-22 on offensive rebounds rate. Orlando also had a historical game with 17-42 3pts and shooting from so far from the basket, it would be hard for them to have an edge on boards, but the Magic was able to do that and took away transition points to the Heat. Orlando basically had no interior game in that game with just 8-18 FG at the rim, while Miami had a solid offense in terms of %FG's, but they really struggled in grabbing offensive rebounds and being aggressive, as their attempted just 17 FT's the whole game, their 2nd lowest mark for them this season.
Curiously, since this game, Miami has been completely dominating the boards on their games and they have been attempting an average of 26.8 FT's per game. With that working for the Heat, I don't believe Orlando will have any chances on this game, as the superior quickness of Miami's guards will make a lot of damage on the Magic defense. This is a big revenge game for Miami and so, I expect the Heat to get a huge win today over Orlando. So, I'll take the Heat in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 804 Miami Heat (-9) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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