Wednesday, February 22, 2012

NBA Premium Play 02/21: San Antonio Spurs @ Portland Trailblazers


NBA - 709 San Antonio Spurs @ 710 Portland Trailblazers

Projected line: 186 points

The Spurs are coming from another close win in Utah last night. They were basically an outside jump shooting team, with just 10-19 FG at the rim and 3-12 FG at 3-9 feet. However, they had deadly sharp outside numbers with 5-7 FG from 10-15 feet, 8-19 FG from 16-23 feet and 10-21 3pts! Note that Duncan played 38 minutes and so, this might become a tough spot for the Spurs, as they are on a tough back to back spot tonight and with no frontcourt depth. The Spurs are coming from a road trip in the East and then, an overtime road game against the Clippers, followed by yesterday's game in Utah and now in Portland. This is a terrible spot for a jump shooting team, so they are likely to struggle offensively tonight.

On the other side, Portland is coming from a ridiculous road loss against the Lakers last night, while it has been confirmed that Felton has lost his starting job to Jamal! The Blazers scored just 30 points in the first half, but then they exploded with 36 points in the 3rd quarter and that was thanks to a ridiculous number of 3pts shots made, as in fact they finished the game with 12-23 3pts, something I highly doubt they can repeat today. Note that they scored just 28 points in the paint, while they also showed no desire in playing good defense yesterday. The Spurs defense is built on making their opponents to shoot from the outside and Portland isn't by rule a good outside shooting team. The Blazers aren't on a good spot neither, as they will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, with trips on every game played on this span. So, looking at the tough physical spot for both teams and the fact that they will have to shoot a lot from the perimeter, I believe neither team will have a big offensive game tonight, therefore I'll be taking the under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Under 189,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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