NBA - 801 Dallas Mavericks @ 802 New York Knicks
Projected line: 194 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
The Knicks are coming from a surprising home loss against the Hornets, where they couldn't run their P&R's against the Hornets, who defended well with nice traps on Lin, with that being one of the reason for such a high number of turnovers by him: 3-11 FG on 21 P&R plays! However, Lin's penetration and passing lanes benefit from shooters spreading the floor and punishing the collapsing defense. Bill Walker (0-4 from downtown), Steve Novak (1-7 on some looks that are practically lay-ups for him), Landry Fields (0-3) and Iman Shumpert (1-4) provided no such floor-spreading: 4-24 treys and 7-21 FG on spot up plays: terrible, considering the good looks! The good news was that Amare is back, as he looked very good against the Hornets, with 12-21 FG and 26 points! Today, Dallas will be able to do the same that the Hornets did to Lin's P&R's plays, as we are talking about the #1 defense on P&R ball handler by allowing just 0.65 PPP! However, Dallas has been struggling on rebounds lately and this might be very dangerous for them today, as Chandler is fired up right now! I'm sure the Mavs will put Marion defending Lin and so, he will have some problems in scoring near the basket due to Marion's size.
On the other hand, Dallas is coming from a big win at Philadelphia, where in the first half, the Sixers moved themselves and the ball with purpose on the offensive end and the result of all that movement was high-percentage looks, including a ton of great looks for their bigs created by the smalls. In the second half, the Mavs decided to pressure the ball and for some reason the Sixers response was to dribble the air out of it, stand around and settle for bad jumpers when they weren't simply coughing it up. As expected, the Sixers based their offense in the perimeter, but they couldn't make most of their shots in the 2nd half, finishing the game with 2-11 FG from 10-15 feet, 8-24 FG from 16-23 feet and 1-14 from 3pts! Defensively, Philadelphia made a good job, as Dallas had just 91 on offensive rates, but Dirk had a huge 2nd half and the Sixers couldn't stop him at all. In terms of backcourt, the depleted Mavs had zero efficiency from their guards.
For today, Dallas will their great ball movement will surely cause problem to the Knicks, while the matchup between Dirk and Amare will definitely favor both players offensively. Terry is back and with him, the Mavs backcourt gain a whole new level offensively. I expect this game to have some good offense from both teams, while taking advantage of the defensive flaws of the opponents. I came up with a totals projection of 194 points for this contest and so, I'll be taking the over in here in a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 801/802 Over 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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