NBA - 507 Indiana Pacers @ 508 Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected line: 189 points | Indiana by 6 points
Indiana is coming from a home loss against Miami, where they never had a chance in the game. After the game, Frank Vogel credited the Heat for playing at a championship level and that sounded about right. Don't get me wrong, the Pacers didn't play well, but they could have played their best game of the season and still lost by ten points last night. Miami is carrying such momentum right now that they aren't giving any chance to anybody. The good news is that with this blowout loss, Indiana was able to rest their starters for today. Just George and Jones played more than 30 minutes! Indiana is 0-4 on his last 4 games, but looking at the schedule, they lost at Atlanta, on a tough spot for them, as they were coming from a close win against Utah. Then, they lost in a close game in Memphis, the same thing happened against Denver and yesterday, they were crushed by an amazing Heat team. The truth is that even though they went 0-4 on their last 4 games, they lost against four playoffs caliber teams.
"Moral is: We're frustrated," Pacers coach Frank Vogel said. "We're not happy losing four in a row by any stretch. We're driven; we're a determined bunch. They want to win very badly, and their efforts will show that."
Today, I expect a bounce back for the Pacers, even though they will be without Granger. They will face Cleveland, who is now playing against their main frontcourt player Varejao. Against the Sixers, Cleveland used Erden, Hollins and Thompson as centers and as a team, they shot 18-35 FG at the rim! With Varejao on court, the Cavs have a net efficiency of +10.47, in comparison to when he is out! So, I expect Indiana's frontcourt to have a clear edge with Hibbert, West, Hansbrough and Amundson. Cleveland tries almost 35% of their shots at the rim, even though they have a bad percentage at that area with 59% FG, while Indiana is a good defensive team by allowing just 61% FG! Irving is probable for today, but Indiana will make a good defensive work by stopping the penetrations, as they have a good team help defense with Collison and George. The key in here for Indiana will be in the offense. They will have a huge edge on their post up plays, where they have a high volume with 18%, while being #6 with 0.88 PPP, while Cleveland is #30 in defending this kind of plays with 0.95 PPP allowed and they will be even worse today without Varejao.
Even though Cleveland has had 3 days off to rest, Indiana is on a strong bounce back spot and they are the better team. Therefore, I'll take the Pacers tonight. I'll be also taking the under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Indiana Pacers (-1,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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