***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
Projected line: Miami by 15 points
Last night, I was a square again when I made a play on Miami, when they opened at -4,5 and closed at -3,5, with the whole public being on the Heat. Well, my "square" play was winning by 22pts at the break and Miami eventually won and covered that game with no problems whatsoever. The Heat had yesterday's game in Atlanta very well studied and curiously, the will apply the same tactic today in Milwaukee. Atlanta's offense without an inside threat is quite easy to stop and Miami's strong size on the wings didn't allow the Hawks to score near the basket. Atlanta shot 9-22 FG at the rim and 4-12 FG from 3-9 feet, while immediately after grabbing the boards and forcing turnovers, Miami would run a transition play and that's why they scored 21 fast break points yesterday! Still, the Heat shot just 4-12 FG in transition and if they had been more efficient on this kind of play, the blowout win would have been even bigger! With the Heat closing the lanes, Atlanta was a pure jump shooting team with 58% FG on their shots being from 16 feet or further. With a focused mindset, Miami gave no chance to Atlanta. You could tell early on that the Big 3 were looking to take over, scoring 45 of the Heat's 63 points in the first half. Due to the blowout win, the key players played few minutes: Lebron 30 minutes, Bosh 32 minutes and Wade 24 minutes.
On the other side, Milwaukee is coming from a home loss against Orlando, where they had a late choke, as they were leading the game by 10 points with 6 minutes to go. On that game, Howard was horrible with 5-15 FG, with 3-11 FG from 3-9 feet and considering he is the only interior threat from Orlando, they needed the 3pts shots to stay competitive (15-37) and a hot run late from them was enough to get the win. What I find curious on that game were the numbers from the Bucks offense: just 11-22 FG at the rim and 1-8 FG from 3-9 feet, so they needed big numbers from the outside to be competitive and they managed that with 12-26 FG from 16-23 feet and 9-22 3pts! The most ridiculous part was their starting center Gooden with 4-10 FG from 16-23 feet and 1-3 3pts! With that, Milwaukee showed that they had no inside game and just like Atlanta, Miami will have an easy task against another one-dimensional team.
On the last game between the Heat and the Bucks, Miami started with a 40-23 run in the first quarter, thanks to Lebron, who scored more than 20 points during that run. However, after that run, they weren't able to have any flow on the offense, finishing the game with 8-20 FG from 16-23 feet and 9-20 3pts! Even though they weren't bad numbers, these aren't the usual numbers of the Heat! In fact, that game was the season high for them in 3pts attempts in a game for them! Milwaukee struggled to score at the rim as expected (17-32 FG at the rim + 5-14 FG from 3-9 feet). Luckily for them, they shot 10-23 3pts and that was the key for them, besides having edges on turnovers and offensive rebounds. Milwaukee also had 1.23 PPP on P&R ball handler plays with 5-9 FG and 13-25 FG 1.32 PPP on spot up plays, with both numbers being much better than their season average.
On the first game of the series, Miami committed 22 turnovers, they played without Wade and they were terrible near the basket, however Bogut still played on that game and was one of the causes why the Heat shot just 9-17 FG at the rim, 4-13 FG from 3-9 feet and 2-7 FG from 10-15 feet.
However, today Miami will be completely fired up on this double revenge game spot for them. They will be highly aggressive on the offensive end and the Bucks have no shot blockers, so I expect the Heat to be capable of pounding Milwaukee down low with ease. On the other side, Miami will close the paint with success as usual and they will force Milwaukee to hit shots from the outside. Therefore, I expect another easy win for Miami like it happened last night and so, I'll take Miami tonight on a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 507 Miami Heat (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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