NBA - 803 Orlando Magic @ 804 Philadelphia 76ers
Projected line: 172 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Orlando is coming from another loss at home yesterday, this time against Indiana.
“In the third quarter, we had absolutely nothing,” Stan Van Gundy explained. “We had no energy whatsoever.” Offensively, the Magic executed poorly again. They shot the ball much better than they have recently, posting an effective field percentage of 56.3%, but turnovers and the ability to get the ball into the paint continues to kill any kind of rhythm on the offensive end. Orlando had 56.3 eFG% and 16-20 FG at the rim, but sucked in everything else, expect 10-23 3pts! Even though they had these good numbers, they were outplayed on defense and on rebounds!
The Magic allowed the Pacers to dominate the paint, scoring 56 points in the paint to Orlando’s 36. Indiana also owned the glass, out rebounding the Magic by 10, grabbing 13 offensive rebounds to Orlando’s five, which helps explain why Indiana took 24 more shots than Orlando in the game. “If you’re going to give up 56 points in the paint, 16 second-chance points and 19 fast break points, that’s not confidence,” Van Gundy told reporters.
For today, Orlando is on a back to back spot and will also play their 4th game in 5 days! They have literally no bench right now, just Glen Davis and JJ Redick. So, there is a big edge for the Sixers in here, with their excellent bench. The Sixers have may problems on the inside against Howard, but their tactics will be to shut down the Magic perimeter, while using their fouls on Howard. On this aspect, Philadelphia has an excellent perimeter defense by being #2 on spot up defense with just 0.85 PPP allowed! Orlando has problems on P&R Ball Handler (and even worse without Nelson) and Philadelphia is #1 in defending this kind of plays with just 0.62 PPP! Philadelphia haven't been shooting a lot at the rim lately, with just 9, 12, 10, 13 and 9 FGM at the rim in their last 5 games! And with Howard, it would never be easy for the Sixers to score tonight close to the basket, so there will be a lot of pressure on the perimeter.
I expect Philadelphia to completely shut down the Magic offense tonight, who is lacking energy and will be an easy target for a top defensive team like the Sixers. I also expect Philadelphia to have some struggles by having to exclusively get their points from the outside and therefore, I came up with a projection of 172 points for this contest, low enough to take the under in here in a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 803/804 Under 179 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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