Projected line: Portland by 12 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Unbelievable of I was right about the Warriors/Memphis game last night, but just on the 4th quarter! Memphis was ridiculously passive during the first 3 quarters of the game and the proof of that is that in 36 minutes, they had 0 fast break points and just 6 FT attempts! In the 4th quarter, they finally woke up and were super aggressive, with 16 fast break points and 17 FT attempts in just one quarter! They took advantage of the bad ball handling of Warriors, who finished the game with 27 turnovers and that was the key factor for the Grizzlies comeback late in the night! Look at the Warriors turnovers just in the 4th quarter:
10:47 52-70 Brandon Rush lost ball (Tony Allen steals)
10:07 53-70 Nate Robinson lost ball (Jeremy Pargo steals)
6:58 62-78 Monta Ellis bad pass (O.J. Mayo steals)
6:41 62-78 Monta Ellis bad pass (Mike Conley steals)
6:00 66-78 Monta Ellis post lost ball turnover
3:19 76-82 Stephen Curry bad pass (Rudy Gay steals)
3:04 76-82 Monta Ellis lost ball (Tony Allen steals)
1:54 82-85 Stephen Curry bad pass (Tony Allen steals)
1:25 84-85 Brandon Rush bad pass (Tony Allen steals)
It was clearly evident that Curry was completely dead tired down the stretch and the same goes for Ellis, with both combining 12 turnovers! The rally of the Grizzlies at the end was just possible in part by Memphis's picking up eight of their 14 steals in the fourth quarter, where they outscored the Warriors. The motor of Memphis was impressive, but thanks to their late push, coach Hollins was forced to give big minutes to their starters, with Gay playing 44min, Gasol 37min, Conley 38min, Allen 37min and Mayo 32min! So, they are into a potential letdown b2b road-road game spot tonight!
On the other side, Portland is coming from an easy win against Sacramento, where they squashed the Kings on the boards. The Blazers rested some of their key players, as Aldridge played just 28min, Felton 33min, Matthews 30min and only Wallace played 35min! So, Portland has a tremendous edge in terms of physical condition for tonight! The matchup tonight also favors the Blazers, with Wallace against Gay and Felton against Conley, two good defenders against two of the best offensive players of the Grizzlies! But the key matchup will be Aldridge vs Speights!
Last season, Portland won the head to head by 2-1, with Zach Randolph playing in two of those games and being a huge factor, with 19pts 14reb in one game and 25pts 20reb in the other! But in the game he didn't play, Portland easily defeated Memphis by 102-89! The Blazers had some problems with rebounding early in the season, but they are already at a great level on this department, as in their last 4 games, they had rebounding rates of 54.4, 56.3, 54.6 and 59.4%, while their opponents had an average offensive rebounding rates on their last 5 games of just 20.98% vs 24.4% season average! This is a perfect fade spot for Memphis tonight and so, I'll take Portland in here in a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 510 Portland Trailblazers (-5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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