Monday, January 30, 2012

NBA Free Premium Play 01/30: San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies


  
San Antonio  at Memphis 
 
 

NBA - 709 San Antonio Spurs @ 710 Memphis Grizzlies


Projected lines: Memphis by 3 points

The Spurs started their game yesterday at Dallas, in a very sluggish way. They looked uncomfortable early on, they were down late in the game and coach Pop seemed to call it a night by subbing in for this starting five late in the third quarter, with the Mavs up big. That's right, the starters last saw the floor with 2:44 remaining in the third, with Dallas up 67-51 and finished with a combined +/- of -43, while the second unit of the Spurs finished the game with a combined +/- of +38! It felt as if the second unit was on a run the entire fourth quarter and thanks to that, the Spurs starters had few minutes, with Parker and Jefferson played the most minutes between the starters with just 28min, so it's not like San Antonio will be a very tough spot for tonight!


Matchup wise, San Antonio has a good matchup in Memphis, as the Grizzlies defense isn't good at spot up plays (#25) by allowing 1.02 PPP. Memphis isn't much better in defending cuts (#23) with 1.23 PPP allowed, so they struggle defensively in the two areas where San Antonio's offense is very good. The key area of MEM vs SAS last year was the frontcourt domination by the Grizzlies, but with Randolph out, Memphis is struggling in dominating the glass and the paint, like they did last season. Memphis' offense has been really bad lately and that's the main reason of their 4 games losing streak, with their offensive rates being lower than 100 in all four games, while having very little volume on the inside! San Antonio commits few turnovers, so it'll be hard for Memphis to score points off turnovers today. This is a bounce back spot for both teams, Memphis may be a very strong home team, but the current matchup is favorable to San Antonio. Therefore, I will be taking the Spurs today.


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709 San Antonio Spurs (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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