NBA - 719 Toronto Raptors @ 720 Utah Jazz
Projected line: 190 points
Yesterday,
when I took the over on the Phoenix/Toronto game, I said the following:
”For tonight, Bargnani is finally back and that will immediately
improve Toronto's offense, not only because the Italian player is their
best offensive player, but also his presence on court opens up the court
for the rest of the players!" This was exactly what happened, as
Bargnani finished the game with 10-21 FG 12-12 FT and 36pts and
Toronto's offense quickly gained a new dimension, especially in the
perimeter where they have been sucking hard! For tonight, I don't expect
a similar performance from Bargnani, but he will receive some extra
looks from Utah and this will give more space to the perimeter players
like DeRozan, Barbosa or J. Johnson! In my opinion, Toronto has some
edge in the backcourt on this specific matchup against the slow footed
and/or inexperienced backcourt of the Jazz!
However, this isn't a good spot for Toronto, as this is a 2nd game
of a back to back, especially when Bargnani played 42 minutes last
minutes and he is about to face Utah's loaded frontcourt. Last night,
Phoenix shot 21-25 FG at the rim and we are talking about a perimeter
oriented team who still crushed the Raptors on the inside! And on their
last 5 games, Utah has shooting 69% FG at the rim with 34.5% volume and
42% FG from 3-9 feet with 16% volume! The gameplan of Utah will be easy
in here to understand: feed the inside with Big Al + Millsap + Favors +
Kanter! Toronto has been having a good rim defense this season, but this
spot and especially this opponent will make their life really tough, as
Utah has been averaging 115 offrates on their last 5 games!
I expect Utah to have a huge offensive game tonight, while Toronto's
backcourt players will also take advantage of the space that having
Bargnani on the court gives them. Therefore, I came up with a totals
projection of 190 points, high enough for me to take the over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719/720 Over 186 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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