Projected line: 205 points
***TOP PLAY***
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
Memphis
is currently on their best moment of the season with 6-0 on their last 6
games. The main reason for that is their improved offense. We all know
they will score via fast breaks, massacre the paint, but now the
Grizzlies are also hitting shots from the outside! Their season average
of offensive rates is 105.2, but on their last 5 games, their offensive
rate has been 117.6! Memphis' season average on 10-15 feet shots, 16-23
feet shots and 3pts shots are respectively 38% FG, 41% FG and 33%.
However, on their last 5 games, they shot 51% FG from 10-15 feet, 46% FG
from 16-23 feet and 46% from 3pts! Today against the Warriors, Memphis
has a good matchup as Golden State is an undersized team and without
comparison on athletic terms! In fact, Memphis is #3 on Post Up plays
with 0.85 PPP, while Golden State is #27 on defending this kind of plays
with 0.91 PPP allowed! The Warriors have been using zone defense, but
the red hot shooting from Memphis plus their aggressiveness in attacking
the rim will torch the Warriors zone defense easily.
On the other side, I also expect Golden State to have an offensive edge against Memphis on this game. They have Stephen Curry back and with him, the Warriors showed very good ball movement. They finished their last game against Indiana with 10-23 3pts and the clear majority of their shots were clever ones. Their offensive dimension with Curry is evident! Monta Ellis had also an excellent game against the Pacers, but Golden State's problem on that game was that they were too soft: just 7-8 FT and 6-14 FG at the rim? For today, I expect the Warriors to be much more aggressive. One of the weakest parts of the Grizzlies defense is the fact that as they gamble so much in the pursuit of takeaways, they are easily exposed on the blind side against good ball movement teams. Their #27 rank in defending Spot Up plays isn't news for me and they have been allowing 1.01 PPP on this kind of plays this season! So, Memphis is headed into big problems today, as Golden State is #1 on Spot Up offense with 1.07 PPP! The Warriors with Curry have more firepower and Golden State has weapons to torch Memphis from the outside on this game.
I believe this game will be a ballgame and so, the chance of having late FT's is quite big, which will also help us with the over. I believe both teams will have the upperhand with their opponent on their offense and so, I came up with a totals projection of 205 points, high enough for me to take the over in here in a Triple Dime Play!
On the other side, I also expect Golden State to have an offensive edge against Memphis on this game. They have Stephen Curry back and with him, the Warriors showed very good ball movement. They finished their last game against Indiana with 10-23 3pts and the clear majority of their shots were clever ones. Their offensive dimension with Curry is evident! Monta Ellis had also an excellent game against the Pacers, but Golden State's problem on that game was that they were too soft: just 7-8 FT and 6-14 FG at the rim? For today, I expect the Warriors to be much more aggressive. One of the weakest parts of the Grizzlies defense is the fact that as they gamble so much in the pursuit of takeaways, they are easily exposed on the blind side against good ball movement teams. Their #27 rank in defending Spot Up plays isn't news for me and they have been allowing 1.01 PPP on this kind of plays this season! So, Memphis is headed into big problems today, as Golden State is #1 on Spot Up offense with 1.07 PPP! The Warriors with Curry have more firepower and Golden State has weapons to torch Memphis from the outside on this game.
I believe this game will be a ballgame and so, the chance of having late FT's is quite big, which will also help us with the over. I believe both teams will have the upperhand with their opponent on their offense and so, I came up with a totals projection of 205 points, high enough for me to take the over in here in a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on Over 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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