NBA Free Premium Play 01/31: Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies

Denver  at Memphis

NBA - 509 Denver Nuggets @ 510 Memphis Grizzlies Projected line: 203 points Memphis is coming from a very heavy home loss against the Spurs last night, where after the game, in unison, O.J. Mayo, Mike Conley, Marc Gasol and Rudy Gay demanded that no one else enter the locker room after the game ended. They spent more than 20 minutes addressing the team’s lack of focus, trust, hustle, defense, rebounding and offensive execution! This was the 5th game in a row where the team couldn't even get to 100 in terms of offensive rates! I watched Conley saying before the game that the team needed to be more aggressive and not be so perimeter oriented, but in the end, the same problems occurred. The Grizzlies shot just 8-14 FG at the rim and we are talking about a team who is averaging +31% volume at the rim this season! Memphis shot 9-25 FG from 16-23 feet, with Rudy Gay shooting 0-7 FG, showing no aggressiveness! Besides that, Memphis wasn't able to use their transition plays, as the whole game was on half court, as San Antonio dominated the boards (33-20 in offensive rebounds/rates) and that prevented the transitions from the Grizzlies. Memphis scored just 7 fast break points and 2-2 FG on transition plays! For today, Denver will certainly allow Memphis to play fast and score on open court, something that has been problematic for them! Against the Clippers, Denver lost a close game without Lawson, where the red hot outside shooting of the Clippers was the key. After the game, coach Karl said that the team really missed Lawson: "How we like to play and how we play efficiently is with a lot of speed and open-court quickness and aggressiveness," Karl said. "We did a good job of getting a lot of that into the game (against the Clippers), but we didn't get as much as we normally get into the game. Probably the efficiency of our pick-and-roll game, our penetration game, was down because Ty didn't have 20 of those possessions"; "Without Ty, it's above average. With Ty, it's special." The good news for Denver is that Lawson is probable for today and so, the Nuggets will push up the pace and with that, Memphis will have their chances on a big bounce back spot for them: super aggressive, especially Gay! Denver's rim defense is mediocre by allowing 67% FG and also Denver has been a subpar defensive team in stopping their opponents to score via offensive rebounds (#29 by allowing 1.17 PPP!). On the other side, Denver is coming from a home loss against the Clippers, so this is also a bounce back spot for them. The Nuggets will explore the lack of depth in the Grizzlies frontcourt and they will crush Memphis in terms of offensive rebounds and the paint. I expect both teams to be very aggressive today and to have good offensive games, so I came up with a totals projection line of 203 points, high enough for me to take the over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Over 200 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker