NBA - 807 Charlotte Bobcats @ 808 New Jersey Nets
Projected line: 198 points | New Jersey by 8 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
This
is a back to back game for both teams who are coming from losses
yesterday! The Nets scored just 74pts and it was one of these days where
a jump shooting just has a bad day, like the Spurs had against the
Kings last Friday for example. I saw part of the NJN vs OKC game and I
liked the offensive flow of the team. They rotated well the ball, but
their problem was their outside shooting with just 8-24 FG from 16-23
feet and 3-23 on 3pts! We are talking about a team who tries just 23.1%
of their shots at the rim, with 32.9% of their shots being 3pts
attempts! So, obviously a 3-23 3pts performance means an immediate
offensive disaster for them! For today, I expect a bounce back game, as
they will have no problems to get good looks against the Bobcats
defense. The Nets have three areas where they are clearly better than
the league average: P&R Ball Handler (#3 with 0.88 PPP), Spot-Up
(#11 with 0.95 PPP) and Offensive Rebounds (#10 with 1.07 PPP) and on
these areas, the Bobcats defense is on the bottom 10: #22 P&R Ball
Handler defense with 0.83 PPP allowed, #26 Spot Up defense with 1.02 PPP
allowed and #25 Offensive Rebound defense with 1.11 PPP allowed!
Charlotte has been playing with an undersized lineup, which will
obviously be a good matchup for Deron Williams against DJ Augustin or
Kemba Walker! The Bobcats are coming from a not so competitive game
against the Bulls, as Chicago was up by 19pts with just 6min to go! The
lack of energy from Chicago was obvious, as the Bobcats outrebounded
them by 7, but still Chicago had no problem in scoring by shooting 48%
FG! Charlotte's lineup leaves a lot of holes outside with their two
undersized guards and also inside with a center (Mullens) who very
rarely plays close to the basket, who finished yesterday's day with 7-14
FG, but with 11 of his 14 FGA being from 16 feet or further from the
basket! The Bobcats was minimally competitive yesterday due to their
15-35 FG from 16-23 feet, but they will struggle to do something like
that once again today!
I expect an offensive bounce back from the Nets today, with their
outside shooting working well once again against a poor Bobcats defense.
New Jersey will surely be better down the stretch with Deron Williams
running the show with a clear mismatch against the Bobcats undersized
backcourt. Therefore, I will be taking the Nets today.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 192 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 808 New Jersey Nets (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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