NBA - 505 Dallas Mavericks @ 506 Utah Jazz
Projected line: 180 points
Yes, the spot is horrible for Dallas, as they will be playing a back to back game, after losing on the road against the Clippers with a buzzer beat shot by Billups. So, common sense would make us fade the Mavs on this tough spot and take the red hot Jazz at home. However, Dallas are known for being road warriors and it looks like the tougher the spot is, the better they play (excluding their horrible first week!). The truth is that the Mavs are 3-1 ATS as road dogs this season, in close games at Oklahoma City, Boston and in LA against the Lakers! The only stinker was their no show at San Antonio. Also in this game, what it matters the most are the matchups and in my opinion, Dallas' defense has exactly the right tools to stop the Jazz offense.
Utah has been running on a pretty hot run, mainly thanks to their frontcourt. If Big Al and Millsap can dominate down low, Utah becomes a really dangerous team. But if they can't, then the Jazz become an average-at-best team, as their perimeter is mediocre. So, if we analyse the matchup between Dallas defense and Utah's frontline offense, we see that Dallas is 10# in defending the rim by allowing 61.8% FG and #4 in defending shots from 3-9 feet by allowing 34% FG! They are also #2 on points allowed in the paint with just 33.7 ppg allowed and #2 in defensive rebounding by allowing just 22.41% of the available rebounds. These defensive ranks are surely impressive and help us understanding why the Mavs defense has been so impressive in their last games. Over their last 5 games, Utah has been trying 32.5% of their shots at the rim with an unbelievable 70% FG! But in the same stretch, Dallas is allowing just 54% at the rim! With Utah's offense limited in the rim tonight, I believe the Jazz will struggle on offense because they aren't good on shooting from the outside by averaging just 30% FG from 10-15 feet, 40% FG from 16-23 feet and 28% 3pts.
On the other side, Dallas is really strong down the stretch and it's curious to see that they are coming from two games where they basically lost on the last shot of the game. I believe Dallas will slow down the pace of the game and they will play their game, run their sets and then, be clutch down the stretch. Utah is really hot right now, but Dallas is the better team and I believe they will bounce back from the two losses at LA with a big win tonight. I'm taking the Mavs on the moneyline tonight. Considering the struggles on offense that Utah will have with the super in-form defense of the Mavs plus the fact that Dallas will try to slow down the pace, I came up with a projection of 180 points for this contest, low enough for me to take the under in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 184 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Dallas Mavericks ML @ +125 / 2.25 on 5Dimes
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