Tuesday, January 24, 2012

NBA Premium Play 01/23: Detroit Pistons @ Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA - 705 Detroit Pistons @ 706 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected line: 183 points | Oklahoma City by 18 points
For this game, Detroit is again with a thin backcourt: just Stuckey and Knight! They will struggle big time against Westbrook and Sefolosha! On their last game against Portland, they were lucky of shooting really well from the outside with 7-15 FG from both 16-23 feet and 3pts! But I don't they will be able to do the same today! They had once again very little volume on the inside against Portland, just 12-22 FG at the rim! Detroit had a considerable volume at the rim (32,1%), but their shooting was poor with 59% FG and the Thunder are defending well the rim with just 61% FG at the rim allowed! With struggles on the outside, Detroit will easily be shutdown!

Oklahoma City is coming back home after a road trip. The Thunder offense will have several edges tonight, as they are 2# on ISO plays with 0.93 PPP, #9 on Off Screens with 0.90 PPP, #3 on Cuts with 1.35 PPP and #5 on Transitions with 1.20 PPP, while Detroit struggles on all these areas, with #26 on defending ISO plays with 0.87 PPP allowed, #22 on defending Off Screens with 0.93 PPP allowed, #29 on defending Cuts with 0.68 PPP allowed and #25 on defending Transitions with 1.20 PPP allowed! The Pistons bench is also horrible with so many injuries and the Thunder will also have a clear edge in terms of 2nd units. I expect a Thunder blowout on this contest, while shutting down the Pistons offense and therefore, I'll take both Oklahoma City and the under tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705/706 Under 186,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 706 Oklahoma City Thunder (-13,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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