Projected line: 189 points | Philadelphia by 12 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
I
like the mindset of Philadelphia for this contest, after their home
loss against Denver. They had a players-only meeting after the game,
with no major aparent reason, considering they actually gave a good
fight to a very good Nuggets team:
The Sixers have also an offensive edge on Cuts (#5 with 1.29 PPP vs ATL #19 on defense with 1.22 PPP allowed). One the secrets of Atlanta without Horford has been their high FT/rate, with 23.3, 28.2, 33.8 and 29.6 on their last four games, but Philadelphia is one of the teams that less offers FT's to their opponents! As the Hawks are 4-0 on their last four games, I don't believe their mindset can be comparable to Philadelphia, who will be clearly on a bounce back mode. The Sixers will continue to be without Hawes and so, they will have Vucevic on their weakest link in the lineup, but the good news is that Atlanta only has Collins and Pachulia as available centers and given this configuration, we can expect Philadelphia to play with their small lineup for large minutes, with their frontcourt being formed by Brand and Young, with Iguodala, Turner and Holiday running the show in the backcourt. This specific lineup has off rates of 109.84 and def rates of 75.76 for a net result of +34.08!!! Therefore, I expect an easy win for the Sixers tonight and I'll take them on a Double Dime Play! Considering the fact that the Sixers will play tonight large minutes with very quick and effective small lineup, I will also be taking the over in here.
"We had a meeting of the minds, a little pow-wow just to make sure
everybody’s on the same page and to avoid slippage," said guard Lou
Williams. "Just to make sure everybody is on the same page. When you
lose a game I think it’s important for everybody to sit down and say
"OK, are we all right?" just make sure everybody’s on the same page.
That was basically it. We had a players’ only meeting just to make sure
everybody was happy. Make sure we continue to push forward."; "This is
the most success we’ve had in a long time and we’re not planning on
letting that go," said Williams. "We can’t afford to lose three or four
in a row based on guys not being able to talk out small little things.
We lost one, we consider that a losing streak in our building, so we
just had to talk it out."
On the other side, Atlanta is coming from a home win against Portland and they are 4-0 since they lost Al Horford due to injury. On their last two games, they started to show some weaknesses, especially in terms of rebounding, with just 44.7 and 45.7% of rebounds in the games. The Hawks are too dependent from Josh, Joe Johnson and also Teague and here the Sixers will have an excellent defensive matchup with Holiday, Iguodala and Young! Both teams shoot a lot of long two's, with ATL 29.5% and PHI 28.2%, but the way Philadelphia defends the perimeter makes them have a clear defensive edge on this area (PHI #2 on Spot-Up defense with 0.81 PPP allowed; ATL #16 on Spot-Up defense, with 0.92 PPP allowed)
On the other side, Atlanta is coming from a home win against Portland and they are 4-0 since they lost Al Horford due to injury. On their last two games, they started to show some weaknesses, especially in terms of rebounding, with just 44.7 and 45.7% of rebounds in the games. The Hawks are too dependent from Josh, Joe Johnson and also Teague and here the Sixers will have an excellent defensive matchup with Holiday, Iguodala and Young! Both teams shoot a lot of long two's, with ATL 29.5% and PHI 28.2%, but the way Philadelphia defends the perimeter makes them have a clear defensive edge on this area (PHI #2 on Spot-Up defense with 0.81 PPP allowed; ATL #16 on Spot-Up defense, with 0.92 PPP allowed)
The Sixers have also an offensive edge on Cuts (#5 with 1.29 PPP vs ATL #19 on defense with 1.22 PPP allowed). One the secrets of Atlanta without Horford has been their high FT/rate, with 23.3, 28.2, 33.8 and 29.6 on their last four games, but Philadelphia is one of the teams that less offers FT's to their opponents! As the Hawks are 4-0 on their last four games, I don't believe their mindset can be comparable to Philadelphia, who will be clearly on a bounce back mode. The Sixers will continue to be without Hawes and so, they will have Vucevic on their weakest link in the lineup, but the good news is that Atlanta only has Collins and Pachulia as available centers and given this configuration, we can expect Philadelphia to play with their small lineup for large minutes, with their frontcourt being formed by Brand and Young, with Iguodala, Turner and Holiday running the show in the backcourt. This specific lineup has off rates of 109.84 and def rates of 75.76 for a net result of +34.08!!! Therefore, I expect an easy win for the Sixers tonight and I'll take them on a Double Dime Play! Considering the fact that the Sixers will play tonight large minutes with very quick and effective small lineup, I will also be taking the over in here.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 806 Philadelphia 76ers (-5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805/806 Over 183,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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