NBA Free Premium Play 01/25: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks

Minnesota  at Dallas

NBA - 717 Minnesota Timberwolves @ 718 Dallas Mavericks Projected line: Dallas by 2 points This game has everything to be highly competitive and I wouldn't be surprised if Minnesota wins it outright! I could explore in here the angle that Dallas will receive their rings today and therefore they will be relaxed for tonight or that Kevin Love just renewed his contract and so, he will fired up, but no! Simply, I will explore the fact that all matchups favor Minnesota in the actual circumstances. Once again Dirk Nowitzki is out for tonight and I can't stop telling how important his presence on court is for the Mavericks. And I have stats to prove that. Both last year and already this season, with Dirk on the court, the Mavs has an average of 114.05 offrates, but with him out, they average just 93.29! That's a difference of 10.75! The other Mavs player whose split proves that the Dallas offense gets better with him on the court is in fact Vince Carter, who will also be out for tonight! On the other side, Minnesota is playing now with both Ridnour and Rubio on the court at the same time and both players are playing big minutes! Rubio can defend a SG, but the truth is that they are still undersized in their backcourt and with their last game, Houston punished them with Kevin Martin, who is 6'7 and had a monster game against the Wolves with 10-21 FG 7-8 FT, in a 31pts peformance! This was one of the reasons why I took Houston in that game! However, the undersized backcourt of the Wolves won't be exposed tonight, something that could have happened with Carter playing, as with him out, coach Carlisle has returned to the three-guard lineup, with a couple of different combos that includes Kidd, Terry and West, as well as Kidd, Terry and Beaubois! As we can see, we are in front of an undersized Dallas backcourt as well! Besides that, Dallas is struggling from the outside right now, as Kidd doesn't even try to shoot anymore, while Terry is on a shooting slump! I can see Minnesota go toe to toe with Dallas without any problems on this matchup! Then, we have the biggest mismatch of the game: Love vs Odom. Dallas has been a good rebounding team early on, but in their last games, they have been completely outrebounded, as they have allowed 16, 15, 11 and 17 offensive boards in their last 4 games! I've already said in the play where we took Phoenix at Dallas that Odom is still completely out of the Dallas system and he seemed to sluggish to start the game against the Suns that he was pulled in the first half of the game and logged less than 10 minutes! Let's remember that Gortat had 8-15 FG 19pts and 17reb in that game and so, don't be surprised if Love has a huge +30pts and +15reb performance tonight! These two teams have already faced each other this season, with an easy home win for the Wolves by 17 points! Minnesota outrebounded Dallas in that game by 54-35 with 17-6 offensive rebounds! All the matchups point to a tight game tonight and therefore, I'll take Minnesota in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717 Minnesota Timberwolves (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker