Saturday, January 21, 2012

NBA Free Premium Play 01/21: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Atlanta Hawks


  
Cleveland  at Atlanta 
 
 

NBA - 501 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 502 Atlanta Hawks


Projected line: 192 points

Atlanta is coming from a loss at Philadelphia, where they completely outplayed in the second half. Their head coach wasn't surely happy about that:

“It got tough for us in the third quarter and we quit,” said Drew, who was visibly upset after meeting with his players and assistant coaches. “That’s what happened.” “I am hoping it’s out of character,” Drew said. “I saw a pattern with it last year and I thought we had turned the corner with it this year. Not the fact that we lost the game, but the fact that it got tough for us and we did not respond. You could see it in our faces and see it in our body language.”

Still, the Hawks players didn't play heavy minutes: Johnson 31min, Teague 32min, Josh 32min! It was all a question of effort! On the other side, the Cavs are coming from a huge blowout loss at home against the Bulls. When a team has a 19 years old PG and your backcourt are a combination of undersized, unathletic & undrafted and your starting power forward is a floor bound 35 year old, occasionally you run into a team that’s better than you. And sometimes you epically crap the bed. Tonight was the latter. The effort drew rebuke not only from the coach, but the owner. On his Twitter account, Dan Gilbert wrote: "Words do not describe how bad we failed tonight. We must & will do better.”

Both teams were really passive on their games with just 8 and 17 FTA, when their season averages are 24.4 and 25.4! Today, both teams will come fired up and be much more aggressive than they were yesterday! Atlanta's offense has the edge with Johnson and Josh against the slow footed Cleveland's defense, especially the Cavs defense is last on the defense on Post-Up defense with 0.95 PPP allowed and second last on defending P&R Ball Handler with 0.84 PPP allowed!

On the other side, Cleveland has a good bench and they need their outside game working. Today they will have the rebound edge that they didn't have in yesterday's game against the best rebounding team in the league! Atlanta doesn't have a good interior presence and therefore, Jamison will have more space to execute his game. I expect an offensive bounce back from both teams tonight and so, I came up with a projection line of 192 points, high enough for me to take the over in here.


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Over 187,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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