Projected line: 177 points | LA Lakers by 9 points
At first sight, it make look like the Lakers are into some huge problems tonight, but the technical analysis tells us otherwise. Looking at mysynergy numbers, the Pacers offense will be completely stopped by the Lakers today! The truth is that their offense can be stopped by almost any team in the league and in their last game against a poor Warriors defense with Granger having his best game of the season so far with 10-16 FG, they shot just 42,2% FG! 25-67 (37%) FG without Granger! The undersized Warriors used a zone defende and Indiana went completely clueless on their offense! The Lakers good defense will be a terrible matchup for the Pacers offense, as according to mysynergy offensive numbers, the Pacers are good in just two areas: Post-Up (#5 with 0.87 PPP) and Offensive Rebounds (#2 with 1.14 PPP), however the Lakers defense are #3 in Post Up plays with 0.71 PPP allowed and #1 on Offensive Rebounds with 0.82 PPP allowed!
On the other end, the Lakers offense has been terrible and Indiana is an excellent overall defensive team, so it won't be easy for the Lakers score tonight, however there is a clear edge for the Lakers offense on Post Up plays, where they are #1 in the league with 0.96 PPP, while the Pacers defense is just #26 in defending this kind of plays with 0.89 PPP allowed. Even though the Lakers have been overall poor on offense, Kobe Bryant has been excellent and down the stretch, the combination between Kobe's offense and the Lakers good defense will be essential, like it has been this season in several homes games of the team from LA.
Therefore, I expect a good win for the Lakers tonight and I'll take them against the Pacers. I believe both defenses will make a good job against the struggling offenses, especially the Lakers defense, and so, I came up with a projection line of 177 points, low enough for me to take the under in here as well.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 809/810 Under 180 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 810 Los Angeles Lakers (-5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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