Projected line: 182 points
Detroit is coming from a good fight against Miami, where they did well offensively by shooting 50% FG and especially, they dominated the boards with 62% boards and 14-6 offensive rebound edge! Their young guys stepped it up, with Knight, Daye and Monroe having great games! However, they continue to struggle on turnovers, with 22 committed against the Heat. Atlanta has been curiously smashed on boards lately and in their last 5 games, they have been allowing 24.63% offensive rebound rates to their opponents, while Detroit has a huge 30.48% on their own offensive rebounds! Both Josh and Johnson are coming from poor games against the Spurs, as Josh shot 6-17 FG and Johnson 5-12 FG! Detroit can't guard these two players, as the Pistons are playing with an undersized 2-guard combo in the backcourt, while Josh is too strong for Jerebko and too quick for Big Ben. I expect both teams to do decently on offense, especially with Atlanta having a good edge on transition plays (Detroit #28 on transition defense by allowing 1.21 PPP) and Detroit on second chance points. Therefore, and looking at the low line, I'm taking the over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 179 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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